Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States
Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States
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揭示一个世纪以来全球变化对美国东部冬季鸟类分布的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Chad B. Wilsey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sarah P. Saunders;T. Meehan;N. Michel;B. Bateman;William V. DeLuca;Jill L. Deppe;J. Grand;G. Lebaron;Lotem Taylor;Henrik Westerkam;Joanna X. Wu;Chad B. Wilsey
生态学和保护领域最紧迫的问题之一是解开全球变化驱动因素、气候和土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）对生物多样性的相对影响。然而，评估这两种驱动因素对物种冬季分布影响的研究仍然很少，阻碍了我们制定完整的年度周期保护策略的能力。此外，了解物种群体对气候变化和LULC变化的不同反应对于提高鸟类群落对未来环境变化的适应能力至关重要。我们使用奥杜邦圣诞鸟类计数（CBC）数据分析了美国东部90年来9个鸟类群体中89种鸟类冬季出现的长期变化。我们估计了每个群体发生概率的变化，作为冬季气候（最低温度，累积降水量）和LULC（CBC圈内群体特异性和人为栖息地的比例）空间和时间变化的函数。我们发现，在鸟类发生概率的空间变化是一致的解释气候在所有9个物种组。相反，LULC变化解释了时间变化的两倍以上（即，年代际变化）的鸟类发生概率比气候变化的平均各组。这种模式主要是由栖息地限制的物种（例如，草原鸟类，水鸟），而栖息地不受限制的物种（例如，森林雀形目鸟类、混合栖息地鸟类）在上个世纪同样受到气候和LULC变化的解释。我们的结论是，气候普遍管辖的鸟类区系在空间和时间上的冬季发生，而LULC的变化发挥了至关重要的作用，在驱动有限的和下降的栖息地可用性的物种的分布动态。有效的土地管理对于提高物种对气候变化的适应能力至关重要，特别是在资源相对稀缺和关键的能源权衡的季节。
One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land‐use/land‐cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species’ winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full‐annual‐cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long‐term changes in winter occurrence of 89 species across nine bird groups over a 90‐year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group‐specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat‐constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat‐unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species’ resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade‐offs.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Allen, Daniel C.;Bateman, Heather L.;Harding, Bridget
通讯作者：
Harding, Bridget
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Rosenberg, Kenneth V.;Dokter, Adriaan M.;Marra, Peter P.
通讯作者：
Marra, Peter P.