The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change
The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change
复制标题
北半球平流层极地涡旋对气候变化响应的不确定性的下行影响
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-18-0041.1
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Callaghan, Patrick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Simpson, Isla R;Hitchcock, Peter;Seager, Richard;Wu, Yutian;Callaghan, Patrick
大气环流模式显示了北方半球冬季平流层极涡未来变化的广泛预测。这种平流层不确定性对对流层的向下影响以前已经从跨模型的回归分析中推断出来，并被认为有助于对流层环流变化中的模型传播。在这里，我们补充这样的回归分析与理想化的实验，使用一个模型，其中不同的变化，在纬向平均平流层极涡是人为施加模拟极涡变化的极端末端模型从第5阶段的耦合模型相互比较项目（CMIP 5）。平流层涡旋变化对对流层环流的影响在这些实验中是定量一致的推断向下的影响，从跨模式回归，表明这种回归描绘了一个真正的向下的影响平流层涡旋变化对流层下面。随着极涡的相对减弱，北极海平面气压（SLP）相对增加，北大西洋纬向风减少，北方欧洲干燥，南欧湿润。在CMIP 5模式中评估了平流层涡旋变化对这些量的模型间扩散的贡献。传播，作为跨模式的标准差的4倍，减少了约10%的回归平流层涡旋变化的贡献，而在其平流层涡旋变化方面的分布的极端两端的模型之间的差异可以达到50%的北极SLP的整体模型传播和20%的整体传播在欧洲降水。
General circulation models display a wide range of future predicted changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric polar vortex. The downward influence of this stratospheric uncertainty on the troposphere has previously been inferred from regression analyses across models and is thought to contribute to model spread in tropospheric circulation change. Here we complement such regression analyses with idealized experiments using one model where different changes in the zonal-mean stratospheric polar vortex are artificially imposed to mimic the extreme ends of polar vortex change simulated by models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The influence of the stratospheric vortex change on the tropospheric circulation in these experiments is quantitatively in agreement with the inferred downward influence from across-model regressions, indicating that such regressions depict a true downward influence of stratospheric vortex change on the troposphere below. With a relative weakening of the polar vortex comes a relative increase in Arctic sea level pressure (SLP), a decrease in zonal wind over the North Atlantic, drying over northern Europe, and wetting over southern Europe. The contribution of stratospheric vortex change to intermodel spread in these quantities is assessed in the CMIP5 models. The spread, as given by 4 times the across-model standard deviation, is reduced by roughly 10% on regressing out the contribution from stratospheric vortex change, while the difference between models on extreme ends of the distribution in terms of their stratospheric vortex change can reach up to 50% of the overall model spread for Arctic SLP and 20% of the overall spread in European precipitation.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
P. Ceppi;D. Hartmann
通讯作者：
P. Ceppi;D. Hartmann
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Harvey, B. J.;Shaffrey, L. C.;Woollings, T. J.
通讯作者：
Woollings, T. J.
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Hitchcock, Peter;Haynes, Peter H.
通讯作者：
Haynes, Peter H.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Harvey, B. J.;Shaffrey, L. C.;Hodges, K. I.
通讯作者：
Hodges, K. I.
北极平流层对全球变暖的动态响应。
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
A. Karpechko;E. Manzini
通讯作者：
E. Manzini