An ensemble weighting approach for dendroclimatology: drought reconstructions for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.
An ensemble weighting approach for dendroclimatology: drought reconstructions for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0086689
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Liu C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang K;Wilmking M;Davi N;Zhou F;Liu C
传统的去趋势方法赋予相同的平均值，所有的年轮序列的年表发展，尽管平均年生长在不同的时间段变化。我们发现，树轮模型的强度可以通过赋予具有较强气候信号的树轮序列更多权重和赋予具有较弱信号的序列更少权重来提高。因此，我们提出了一个集成加权方法，以减轻这些潜在的偏见，更准确地提取树木气候学研究中的气候信号。利用该方法重建了松鸣岩地区第一次年降水量（前8月至今7月），并重新计算了青藏高原东北部都兰地区（亚洲夏季风边缘区）神阁站的树轮年表。综合加权法解释了松鸣岩山区重建的31.7%的仪器方差和都兰地区重建的57.3%的仪器方差，均高于传统方法。重点研究了松鸣岩地区新近引进的重建工程，其中包括1862-1874年、1914-1933年和1991-1999年（1882-1905年）的极端干（湿）期。这些干/湿的时代也被发现在夏季风的边缘地区和印度次大陆，区域水文气候变化和印度夏季风之间的联系。
Traditional detrending methods assign equal mean value to all tree-ring series for chronology developments, despite that the mean annual growth changes in different time periods. We find that the strength of a tree-ring model can be improved by giving more weights to tree-ring series that have a stronger climate signal and less weight to series that have a weaker signal. We thus present an ensemble weighting method to mitigate these potential biases and to more accurately extract the climate signals in dendroclimatology studies. This new method has been used to develop the first annual precipitation reconstruction (previous August to current July) at the Songmingyan Mountain and to recalculate the tree-ring chronology from Shenge site in Dulan area in northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), a marginal area of Asian summer monsoon. The ensemble weighting method explains 31.7% of instrumental variance for the reconstructions at Songmingyan Mountain and 57.3% of the instrumental variance in the Dulan area, which are higher than those developed using traditional methods. We focus on the newly introduced reconstruction at Songmingyan Mountain, which showsextremely dry (wet) epochs from 1862–1874, 1914–1933 and 1991–1999 (1882–1905). These dry/wet epochs were also found in the marginal areas of summer monsoon and the Indian subcontinent, indicating the linkages between regional hydroclimate changes and the Indian summer monsoon.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1689
发表时间：
2008-11-30
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fan, Ze-Xin;Brauning, Achim;Cao, Kun-Fang
通讯作者：
Cao, Kun-Fang
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
COOK, ER;BRIFFA, KR;FUNKHOUSER, G
通讯作者：
FUNKHOUSER, G
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
D'Arrigo, RD;Kaufmann, RK;Cherubini, P
通讯作者：
Cherubini, P
青海湖沉积物记录32ka以来西风带与亚洲季风的相互作用
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
An, Zhisheng;Colman, Steven M.;Zhou, Weijian;Li, Xiaoqiang;Brown, Eric T.;Jull, A. J. Timothy;Cai, Yanjun;Huang, Yongsong;Lu, Xuefeng;Chang, Hong;Song, Yougui;Sun, Youbin;Xu, Hai;Liu, Weiguo;Jin, Zhangdong;Liu, Xiaodong;Cheng, Peng;Liu, Yu;Ai, Li;Li, Xiangzhong;Liu, Xiuju;Yan, Libin;Shi, Zhengguo;Wang, Xulong;Wu, Feng;Qiang, Xiaoke;Dong, Jibao;Lu, Fengyan;Xu, Xinwen
通讯作者：
Xu, Xinwen
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Bollasina, Massimo A.;Ming, Yi;Ramaswamy, V.
通讯作者：
Ramaswamy, V.