Bayesian decision making in human collectives with binary choices.
Bayesian decision making in human collectives with binary choices.
复制标题
具有二元选择的人类集体中的贝叶斯决策。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0121332
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Fernández-Gracia J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eguíluz VM;Masuda N;Fernández-Gracia J
在这里，我们将重点描述信息聚合和决策过程背后的机制，这是理解社会中出现的现象（如趋势、信息传播或群体智慧）的基本步骤。在许多情况下，代理在离散的选项之间进行选择。我们分析了人类二元意见选择的实验数据。数据由两个独立的实验组成，在这些实验中，人们用二元反应回答问题，其中一个是正确的，另一个是错误的。这些问题的答案是没有或有一些以前的参与者的答案的信息。我们发现贝叶斯方法捕获了选择其中一个答案的概率。同伴的影响与问题的难易程度无关。这些数据与韦伯定律不一致，韦伯定律指出，选择一个选项的概率取决于之前选择该选项的答案的比例，而不是这些答案的总数。最后，与以前提出的一些其他函数相比，目前的贝叶斯模型对数据的拟合相当好，尽管后者有时比贝叶斯模型稍好。该模型的优点是对行为的简单和机械的解释。
Here we focus on the description of the mechanisms behind the process of information aggregation and decision making, a basic step to understand emergent phenomena in society, such as trends, information spreading or the wisdom of crowds. In many situations, agents choose between discrete options. We analyze experimental data on binary opinion choices in humans. The data consists of two separate experiments in which humans answer questions with a binary response, where one is correct and the other is incorrect. The questions are answered without and with information on the answers of some previous participants. We find that a Bayesian approach captures the probability of choosing one of the answers. The influence of peers is uncorrelated with the difficulty of the question. The data is inconsistent with Weber’s law, which states that the probability of choosing an option depends on the proportion of previous answers choosing that option and not on the total number of those answers. Last, the present Bayesian model fits reasonably well to the data as compared to some other previously proposed functions although the latter sometime perform slightly better than the Bayesian model. The asset of the present model is the simplicity and mechanistic explanation of the behavior.
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影响因子：
8.2
作者：
BIKHCHANDANI, S;HIRSHLEIFER, D;WELCH, I
通讯作者：
WELCH, I
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
McNamara, JM;Green, RF;Olsson, O
通讯作者：
Olsson, O
DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2009.04.007
发表时间：
2009-08-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Martins, Andre C. R.;Pereira, Carlos de B.;Vicente, Renato
通讯作者：
Vicente, Renato
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Martins, Andre C. R.
通讯作者：
Martins, Andre C. R.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1116141109
发表时间：
2012-05-08
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Gallup, Andrew C.;Hale, Joseph J.;Couzin, Iain D.
通讯作者：
Couzin, Iain D.