Non-linear Equation using Plasma Brain Natriuretic Peptide Levels to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure.
Non-linear Equation using Plasma Brain Natriuretic Peptide Levels to Predict Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure.
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非线性方程使用血浆脑脂肪酸肽水平来预测心力衰竭患者的心血管结局。
DOI：
10.1038/srep37073
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发表时间：
2016-11-15
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kitakaze M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fukuda H;Suwa H;Nakano A;Sakamoto M;Imazu M;Hasegawa T;Takahama H;Amaki M;Kanzaki H;Anzai T;Mochizuki N;Ishii A;Asanuma H;Asakura M;Washio T;Kitakaze M
脑钠肽（BNP）是慢性心力衰竭（CHF）预后的最有效预测因子。本研究旨在确定CHF患者出院时和心血管事件发生当天BNP水平之间的定性关系。我们设计了一个数学概率模型之间的BNP水平在出院时（y）和出院后的心血管事件（t）为113例CHF患者（协议I）。然后，我们对另一组60例再次入院的CHF患者（方案II）前瞻性评估了该模型。P（t| y）是>t后发生心血管事件的概率，t上的概率表示为p（t| y）= −dP（t| y）/dt，以及p（t| y）= pP（t| y）= αyβP（t| y），沿着p = αyβ（α和β为常数）;解为p（t| y）= αyβ exp（−αyβt）。我们使用最大似然原理将该方程拟合到方案I的数据集，并且我们获得模型p（t| y）= 0.000485y0.24788 exp（−0.000485y0.24788t）。基于该模型和方案II数据集中的BNP水平yi，无心血管事件率计算为P（t）= 1,...,60 i= 1，...，60 exp（−0.000485yi0.24788t）。我们确认了基于模型的结果与实际无事件发生率之间无差异。CHF患者BNP水平与心血管事件发生日呈非线性关系。
Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) is the most effective predictor of outcomes in chronic heart failure (CHF). This study sought to determine the qualitative relationship between the BNP levels at discharge and on the day of cardiovascular events in CHF patients. We devised a mathematical probabilistic model between the BNP levels at discharge (y) and on the day (t) of cardiovascular events after discharge for 113 CHF patients (Protocol I). We then prospectively evaluated this model on another set of 60 CHF patients who were readmitted (Protocol II). P(t|y) was the probability of cardiovascular events occurring after >t, the probability on t was given as p(t|y) = −dP(t|y)/dt, and p(t|y) = pP(t|y) = αyβP(t|y), along with p = αyβ (α and β were constant); the solution was p(t|y) = αyβ exp(−αyβt). We fitted this equation to the data set of Protocol I using the maximum likelihood principle, and we obtained the model p(t|y) = 0.000485y0.24788 exp(−0.000485y0.24788t). The cardiovascular event-free rate was computed as P(t) = 1/60Σi=1,…,60 exp(−0.000485yi0.24788t), based on this model and the BNP levels yi in a data set of Protocol II. We confirmed no difference between this model-based result and the actual event-free rate. In conclusion, the BNP levels showed a non-linear relationship with the day of occurrence of cardiovascular events in CHF patients.
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影响因子：
24
作者：
Iwanaga, Y;Nishi, I;Nonogi, H
通讯作者：
Nonogi, H
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Melenovsky, Vojtech