Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.
Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aaa4339
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发表时间：
2015-03-13
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heesterbeek H;Anderson RM;Andreasen V;Bansal S;De Angelis D;Dye C;Eames KT;Edmunds WJ;Frost SD;Funk S;Hollingsworth TD;House T;Isham V;Klepac P;Lessler J;Lloyd-Smith JO;Metcalf CJ;Mollison D;Pellis L;Pulliam JR;Roberts MG;Viboud C;Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration
尽管在控制传染病方面取得了一些显著的成功，但传染性病原体仍然对人类和动物健康构成巨大威胁。感染的生态和进化动力学在广泛的相互关联的时间、组织和空间尺度上发挥作用，即使在单一病原体内，也往往跨越数小时至数月，从细胞到生态系统，从局部到大流行的传播。有些病原体直接在单一物种的个体之间传播，而另一些病原体则在多个宿主之间传播，需要节肢动物媒介，或者可以在环境宿主中生存。许多因素，包括抗生素耐药性的增加，人类联系的增加和动态的人类行为，将预防和控制从以前的国家问题提升到国际问题。面对这一复杂性，数学模型为综合信息以了解流行病学模式以及为全球卫生决策建立定量证据基础提供了重要工具。
Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational and spatial scales, which even within a single pathogen often span hours to months, cellular to ecosystem levels, and local to pandemic spread. Some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, while others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity, and dynamic human behavior, raise prevention and control from formerly national to international issues. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer essential tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing the quantitative evidence base for decision-making in global health.
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
DOI：
10.1126/science.1210554
发表时间：
2011-12-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bharti N;Tatem AJ;Ferrari MJ;Grais RF;Djibo A;Grenfell BT
通讯作者：
Grenfell BT
DOI：
10.1126/science.1244492
发表时间：
2013-10-04
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bauch CT;Galvani AP
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Bellan, Steve E.;Fiorella, Kathryn J.;Melesse, Dessalegn Y.;Getz, Wayne M.;Williams, Brian G.;Dushoff, Jonathan
通讯作者：
Dushoff, Jonathan
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Camacho, A.;Kucharski, A. J.;Funk, S.;Breman, J.;Piot, P.;Edmunds, W. J.
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. J.