Learning from the Mexican Earthquake of September 19, 1985: Estimation of Strong Ground Motions

这项研究计划将调查1985年9月19日墨西哥地震期间观测到的强烈地面运动的来源、传播路径和盆地效应。这次地震发生在米却肯州的“地震空区”，存在着在未来十年内在附近的格雷罗州地震空区发生大地震的大概率。这样的事件可能会像1985年9月19日的地震一样对墨西哥城造成破坏。这项研究计划将寻求获得对这一事件将导致的强烈地面运动震动的实用估计。鉴于发生的可能性很高，因此很有可能在不久的将来将这些估计与测量数据进行核对。这样的估计，以及与测量数据的比较，预计将导致估计地震产生的强地面运动的技术的显著进步。

This research program will investigate the source, progapation path, and basin effects that produced the strong ground motion observed during the Mexican Earthquake of September 19, 1985. This earthquake occurred in the Michoacan "seismic gap," and a high probability exists that a large earthquake will occur in the nearby Guerrero seismic gap within the next decade. Such an event could be as damaging to Mexico City as was the September 19,1985 earthquake. This research program will seek to obtain practically useful estimates of the strong ground motion shaking that would result from this event. Given the high probability of occurrence, there is therefore a good chance that these estimates can be checked against measured data in the near future. Such an estimate, and comparison with measured data, is expected to result in signficant advances in the techniques for estimating seismically generated strong ground motion.