Learning from the Mexican Earthquake of September 19, 1985: Estimation of Strong Ground Motions

本研究项目将调查1985年9月19日墨西哥地震中观测到的强地面运动的来源、传播路径和盆地效应。这次地震发生在米却肯州的“地震间隙”，在未来十年内，附近的格雷罗地震间隙很有可能发生一次大地震。这样的事件对墨西哥城造成的破坏可能与1985年9月19日的地震一样严重。这个研究项目将寻求获得实际有用的估计强地面运动震动，将导致这一事件。鉴于发生的高概率，因此很有可能在不久的将来用测量数据来检验这些估计。这样的估计以及与实测数据的比较，预计将在估计地震引起的强地面运动的技术方面取得重大进展。

This research program will investigate the source, progapation path, and basin effects that produced the strong ground motion observed during the Mexican Earthquake of September 19, 1985. This earthquake occurred in the Michoacan "seismic gap," and a high probability exists that a large earthquake will occur in the nearby Guerrero seismic gap within the next decade. Such an event could be as damaging to Mexico City as was the September 19,1985 earthquake. This research program will seek to obtain practically useful estimates of the strong ground motion shaking that would result from this event. Given the high probability of occurrence, there is therefore a good chance that these estimates can be checked against measured data in the near future. Such an estimate, and comparison with measured data, is expected to result in signficant advances in the techniques for estimating seismically generated strong ground motion.