Seismic Hazard Analysis: Improved Models and Analysis of Uncertainties and Sensitivities

一种新的、综合的地震危险性分析方法是 开发，以结合地震源的功能， 地震波的衰减，以及当地地质和土壤的影响。 新方法，基于快速概率积分方案开发 在结构可靠性，将允许纳入完善的 危险分析中的模型。 它还将允许适当分析 模型的不确定性和对危险的敏感性的评估 各种型号或参数。 地面运动的替代措施 强度，包括矢量表示，将有可能与 新方法具有上述功能的通用计算机代码 将被开发并提供给工程师 社区 该研究将导致一个合理的危险性分析方法，打破 跨越跨学科的障碍，利用扩大的 提供地震数据库和更好地了解 最近发生的地震。

A new, comprehensive method for the analysis of seismic hazard is developed to incorporate features of the earthquake source, the attenuation of seismic waves, and the effects of local geology and soil. The new method, based on a fast probability integration scheme developed in structural reliability, will allow the incorporation of refined models in the hazard analysis. It will also allow proper analysis of model uncertainties and evaluation of sensitivities of the hazard to various models or parameters. Alternative measures of ground motion intensity, including vector representations, will be possible with the new method. A general-purpose computer code with the above capabilities will be developed and will be made available to the engineering community. The research will lead to a rational hazard analysis method which breaks across the interdisciplinary barriers by making use of the expanded seismic data base available and the better understanding of the physical process involved by earthquakes achieved lately.