Geoinformatics: A Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis (SCEC PetaSHA3 Project)

SCEC PetaSHA3项目将开发系统级地震过程的计算模型，并在NSF的超级计算机上运行这些模型，对加州未来地震的强烈地面运动进行更准确的估计。SCEC吗?该公司的CyberShake计算平台最近为洛杉矶地区提供了首个基于物理的概率地震危害分析（PSHA）。PetaSHA2项目的重大科学创新，以及在工作流管理、高容量计算方面的突破（在TACC Ranger超级计算机的4000个处理器上连续运行50天）。SCEC将在包括Blue Waters在内的最大的NSF超级计算机上实施CyberShake，目标是在未来两年内为整个加利福尼亚州计算高分辨率、高频率的PSHA地图。这将需要对非常大的数据集进行验证，并将计算效率提高100倍。该项目将使用CyberShake平台为业务地震预报（OEF）表示随时间变化的地震危险性。OEF的目标是提供有关地震灾害时间依赖性的权威信息，以帮助社区为潜在的破坏性地震做好准备。加州的第一个OEF模型（UCERF3）目前正在由SCEC、USGS和CGS根据与加州地震局的合同开发。通过将UCERF3与CyberShake系统相结合，该项目将生成PSHA地图，显示地震危险每天的变化情况。，它将把CyberShake从绘制长期灾害（地震气候）扩展到绘制短期灾害（地震天气）。这是使用传统PSHA技术无法实现的全新功能。如果取得成功，这些发展预计将对地震工程、保险费率制定和再保险战略、地震防备活动以及地震可预测性的基础研究产生重大影响。

The SCEC PetaSHA3 project will develop computational models of system-level earthquake processes and, running these models on NSF supercomputers, derive more accurate estimates of the strong ground motion expected from future earthquakes in California. SCEC?s CyberShake computational platform recently produced the first physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Los Angeles region?a major scientific innovation of the PetaSHA2 project and a breakthrough in workflow-managed, high-capacity computing (50-day continuous run on 4000 processors of the TACC Ranger supercomputer). SCEC will implement CyberShake on the largest NSF supercomputers, including Blue Waters, with the goal of calculating high-resolution, high-frequency PSHA maps for the entire State of California in the next two years. This will require validation against very large data sets and a hundredfold increase in computational efficiency.The project will use the CyberShake platform to represent time-dependent seismic hazard for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). The goal of OEF is to provide authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The first OEF model for California (UCERF3) is now being developed by SCEC, USGS and CGS under a contract with the California Earthquake Authority. By coupling UCERF3 into the CyberShake system, the project will produce PSHA maps that show how seismic hazards are changing on a daily basis?i.e., it will extend CyberShake from the mapping of long-term hazard (seismic climate) to short-term hazard (seismic weather)?an entirely new capability not possible using conventional PSHA techniques. If successful, these developments are expected to have substantial impacts on seismic engineering, insurance rate-setting and reinsurance strategies, and earthquake preparedness activities, as well as basic research on earthquake predictability.