Geoinformatics: A Petascale Cyberfacility for Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Analysis (SCEC PetaSHA3 Project)

地理信息学：用于基于物理的地震灾害分析的 Petascale 网络设施（SCEC PetaSHA3 项目）

• 批准号: 0949443
• 负责人: Thomas Jordan
• 金额: $ 167.5万
• 依托单位: University of Southern California
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-15 至 2013-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0949443&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Geoinformatics; Petascale; Cyberfacility; Physics; Based

The SCEC PetaSHA3 project will develop computational models of system-level earthquake processes and, running these models on NSF supercomputers, derive more accurate estimates of the strong ground motion expected from future earthquakes in California. SCEC?s CyberShake computational platform recently produced the first physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Los Angeles region?a major scientific innovation of the PetaSHA2 project and a breakthrough in workflow-managed, high-capacity computing (50-day continuous run on 4000 processors of the TACC Ranger supercomputer). SCEC will implement CyberShake on the largest NSF supercomputers, including Blue Waters, with the goal of calculating high-resolution, high-frequency PSHA maps for the entire State of California in the next two years. This will require validation against very large data sets and a hundredfold increase in computational efficiency.The project will use the CyberShake platform to represent time-dependent seismic hazard for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). The goal of OEF is to provide authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The first OEF model for California (UCERF3) is now being developed by SCEC, USGS and CGS under a contract with the California Earthquake Authority. By coupling UCERF3 into the CyberShake system, the project will produce PSHA maps that show how seismic hazards are changing on a daily basis?i.e., it will extend CyberShake from the mapping of long-term hazard (seismic climate) to short-term hazard (seismic weather)?an entirely new capability not possible using conventional PSHA techniques. If successful, these developments are expected to have substantial impacts on seismic engineering, insurance rate-setting and reinsurance strategies, and earthquake preparedness activities, as well as basic research on earthquake predictability.

SCEC PetaSHA3项目将开发系统级地震过程的计算模型，并在NSF超级计算机上运行这些模型，对加州未来地震的强烈地面运动进行更准确的估计。SCEC？的CyberShake计算平台最近为洛杉矶地区产生了第一个基于物理的概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）？PetaSHA2项目的重大科学创新，以及工作流管理的高容量计算（在TACC Ranger超级计算机的4000个处理器上连续运行50天）的突破。 SCEC将在包括Blue沃茨在内的最大的NSF超级计算机上实施CyberShake，目标是在未来两年内计算整个加州州的高分辨率、高频率PSHA地图。这将需要对非常大的数据集进行验证，并将计算效率提高百倍。该项目将使用CyberShake平台来表示业务地震预报（OEF）的时间依赖性地震危险。OEF的目标是提供有关地震灾害时间依赖性的权威信息，以帮助社区为潜在的破坏性地震做好准备。 根据与加州地震局签订的合同，SCEC、USGS和CGS正在开发加州的第一个OEF模型（UCERF3）。通过将UCERF3耦合到CyberShake系统中，该项目将产生PSHA地图，显示地震危险每天是如何变化的？也就是说，它将把CyberShake从长期灾害（地震气候）的映射扩展到短期灾害（地震天气）？这是使用传统PSHA技术不可能实现的全新能力。 如果成功，这些发展预计将对地震工程、保险费率的确定和再保险战略、地震防备活动以及地震可预测性的基础研究产生重大影响。