Inventory Behavior and the Implications for Output Variability

库存行为及其对产出变化的影响

• 批准号: 8704682
• 负责人: James Kahn
• 金额: $ 6.06万
• 依托单位: University of Rochester
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-07-15 至 1990-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8704682&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Inventory; Behavior; Implications; Output; Variability

This project examines the behavior of finished goods inventories both from a theoretical, as well as from an empirical perspective. The purpose of this research is to account for the importance of inventory movements in the overall economy and also in specific sectors of the economy. The research is based on an inventory model in which the primary source of uncertainty for producers is the fluctuation in demand for their products. In the model inventories arise because of the need to produce goods in advance of sales, and because of the need to hold some positive level of inventories. This research is important because it will provide a better understanding of inventory and output fluctuations of the firm. The theoretical part of this project will extend the results of the inventory model to a general equilibrium setting that would allow for varying cost structures, intertemporal substitution on the part of consumers, different source and types of shocks to the economy, and the transmission of shocks across sectors of the economy. The empirical work involves testing different versions of the model on inventory, production, and sales data from the U.S. automobile industry, under the assumption of rational expectations. The work will test the implications of the motive to avoid running out of inventories including the basic prediction that beginning inventory stocks are based on efficient forecasts of demand. The model is also useful for identifying the effects of interest rates and other factor prices on inventory investment.

本项目研究产成品库存的行为 无论是从理论上还是从实证的角度。 的 本研究的目的是说明库存的重要性， 整体经济的走势，以及 经济 该研究是基于库存模型，其中， 生产者不确定性的主要来源是 对他们产品的需求。 在模型中，库存的产生是因为 在销售之前生产商品的需要，由于需要 保持一定的库存水平。 这项研究很重要 因为它可以更好地了解库存， 企业的生产波动。 该项目的理论部分将扩展的结果 库存模型一般均衡设置， 考虑到不同的成本结构， 消费者的一部分，对经济的不同来源和类型的冲击， 以及冲击在经济各部门之间的传递。 的 实证工作包括测试不同版本的模型， 美国汽车库存、生产和销售数据 在理性预期的假设下。 这项工作将 测试避免库存耗尽的动机的含义 包括基本的预测，即期初库存量 基于对需求的有效预测。 该模型也适用于 确定利率和其他要素价格对 存货投资