Real and Financial Models of Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness

实际汇率和竞争力的实际和金融模型

• 批准号: 8708399
• 负责人: Edward Leamer
• 金额: $ 16.49万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-08-01 至 1991-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8708399&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Real; Financial; Models; Exchange; Rates

The continuing integration of the international economy requires that economic analysts take into account the potential effects on trade relationships of the various policies and incentives affecting production. Empirical research has shown that the goods produced by a country can be categorized by one of two groups. These are tradeable goods, which occupy a place in the international market, and nontradeable goods, which for many reasons, for example consumer taste or nontransportability, are sold only domestically. For instance, if the preferences of the consumers in a country do not include eating certain kinds of meats or dairy products, that country will not purchase them on the world market. To a country producing those goods, they are considered nontradeable. However, there might well be a spirited domestic market for the same goods in the producing country. Likewise goods like services, houses and buildings, scenic areas, and many other commodities cannot be traded amoung countries. This project examines the prices of traded goods relative to prices of nontraded goods and develops models of the international economy more detailed and informative than were heretofore available. Porfessor Leamer has developed the concept of a "real exchange rate" for goods. In essence this rate is the overall price of traded goods relative to the price of nontraded goods incorporating the effects of inflation. Variation in the real exchange rate can account for much of the international economic status of a country. For instance, if the real exchange rate declines, producers of exports and import- competing goods realize smaller and smaller profits, and are unable to compete with foreign producers. In a word, the country loses its "competitiveness" on the world market. This might be due to real events inherent in the economy, or it might be the undesireable consequences of government policy. This project makes an important contribution to the literature on international ecomomics by deriving statistically consistent measures of the real exchange rate. Professor Leamer applies these models to various government monetary and fiscal policies to test their effects.

国际经济的持续一体化要求经济分析家考虑到影响生产的各种政策和激励措施对贸易关系的潜在影响。实证研究表明，一个国家生产的商品可以分为两类。这些是在国际市场上占有一席之地的可贸易商品和不可贸易商品，由于许多原因，例如消费者的口味或不可运输，只能在国内销售。例如，如果一个国家的消费者的偏好不包括食用某种肉类或乳制品，该国家就不会在世界市场上购买它们。对于生产这些商品的国家来说，它们被认为是不可贸易的。然而，在生产国，同样的商品很可能会有一个活跃的国内市场。同样，服务、房屋和建筑、风景名胜区和许多其他商品也不能在国家之间进行交易。这个项目考察了贸易商品相对于非贸易商品的价格，并开发了比以前更详细和更有信息量的国际经济模型。利默教授提出了商品“实际汇率”的概念。从本质上讲，这一比率是贸易商品相对于非贸易商品价格的总体价格，其中包含了通货膨胀的影响。实际汇率的变化可以在很大程度上解释一国的国际经济地位。例如，如果实际汇率下降，出口和进口竞争产品的生产商实现的利润越来越少，无法与外国生产商竞争。总而言之，这个国家失去了在世界市场上的“竞争力”。这可能是由于经济中固有的真实事件，也可能是政府政策的不良后果。该项目通过得出统计上一致的实际汇率衡量标准，对国际经济经济学文献做出了重要贡献。利默教授将这些模型应用于各种政府货币和财政政策，以检验它们的效果。