Real and Financial Models of Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness

国际经济的持续一体化要求经济分析家考虑到影响生产的各种政策和激励措施对贸易关系的潜在影响。实证研究表明，一个国家生产的商品可以分为两类。它们是在国际市场上占有一席之地的可贸易商品，以及由于许多原因，例如消费者口味或不可运输性，只能在国内销售的不可贸易商品。例如，如果一个国家的消费者的偏好不包括食用某些种类的肉类或乳制品，那么这个国家就不会在世界市场上购买它们。对于生产这些商品的国家来说，它们被认为是不可贸易的。然而，同样的商品在生产国很可能有一个活跃的国内市场。同样，像服务、房屋和建筑、风景区和许多其他商品等商品也不能在国家之间进行交易。这个项目审查了贸易货物的价格与非贸易货物的价格的关系，并发展了国际经济的模型，比以往任何时候都更加详细和翔证。利默教授提出了商品“实际汇率”的概念。从本质上讲，这个比率是考虑通货膨胀影响的贸易商品相对于非贸易商品的总价格。实际汇率的变动可以在很大程度上说明一个国家的国际经济地位。例如，如果实际汇率下降，出口和进口竞争商品的生产商实现的利润越来越小，无法与外国生产商竞争。总之，这个国家在世界市场上失去了“竞争力”。这可能是由于经济中固有的真实事件，也可能是政府政策的不良后果。该项目通过得出实际汇率的统计一致措施，对国际经济学文献做出了重要贡献。利默教授将这些模型应用于各种政府货币和财政政策，以检验其效果。

The continuing integration of the international economy requires that economic analysts take into account the potential effects on trade relationships of the various policies and incentives affecting production. Empirical research has shown that the goods produced by a country can be categorized by one of two groups. These are tradeable goods, which occupy a place in the international market, and nontradeable goods, which for many reasons, for example consumer taste or nontransportability, are sold only domestically. For instance, if the preferences of the consumers in a country do not include eating certain kinds of meats or dairy products, that country will not purchase them on the world market. To a country producing those goods, they are considered nontradeable. However, there might well be a spirited domestic market for the same goods in the producing country. Likewise goods like services, houses and buildings, scenic areas, and many other commodities cannot be traded amoung countries. This project examines the prices of traded goods relative to prices of nontraded goods and develops models of the international economy more detailed and informative than were heretofore available. Porfessor Leamer has developed the concept of a "real exchange rate" for goods. In essence this rate is the overall price of traded goods relative to the price of nontraded goods incorporating the effects of inflation. Variation in the real exchange rate can account for much of the international economic status of a country. For instance, if the real exchange rate declines, producers of exports and import- competing goods realize smaller and smaller profits, and are unable to compete with foreign producers. In a word, the country loses its "competitiveness" on the world market. This might be due to real events inherent in the economy, or it might be the undesireable consequences of government policy. This project makes an important contribution to the literature on international ecomomics by deriving statistically consistent measures of the real exchange rate. Professor Leamer applies these models to various government monetary and fiscal policies to test their effects.