Most-Probable-State Analysis: A Macro Statistical Approach to Testing Probabilistic Theories of Spatial Behavior

最可能状态（MPS）分析是一种用于估计 大人口的一般特征分为区域和 本地组件组。 MPS是一种分析和预测 区域和地方单位之间的运动，从而使区域 人口预测。 史密斯教授一直在研究 在基金会的支持下，开发和完善MPS分析。 这个奖项 将支持进一步扩展该技术的研究， 阐述其应用。 MPS提供了统一的理论基础的潜力， 模拟区域和地点之间的空间相互作用。 应用 这种统一将导致测量技术的改进 并分析各种空间相互作用，尤其是那些 影响到人口和就业的区域变化。

Most-probable-state (MPS) analysis is a technique for estimating general characteristics of large populations divided into regional and local component groups. MPS is a means of analyzing and forecasting movements among regional and local units and therefore of making regional population forecasts. Professor Smith has been conducting research on developing and refining MPS analysis with Foundation support. This award will support research on further extensions of the technique and on elaboration of its applications. MPS offers the potential for unifying the theoretical basis for modelling spatial interactions among regions and places. The applications of such a unification would result in improved techniques for measuring and analyzing spatial interactions of all kinds, but especially those that bear upon regional changes in population and employment.