Subjective Versus Objective Perception in Risk-Sensitive Foraging

决策往往必须在决策结果 过程是未知的，但可以通过以下概率来指定： 正在发生。 在这种情况下的决策分析 不确定性已成为动物研究的主要焦点 行为 决策过程受两个因素的影响： 生物体从特定结果中获得的益处（例如， 食物的数量和结果的概率。 迄今为止，大多数研究都考察了生物体 评估和权衡利益，但很少注意到 生物体如何评估和构建概率。 相当 大量的经验证据表明， 对概率做出有偏差的估计。 我们始终相信 低概率事件更有可能发生， 事件发生的可能性比实际发生的可能性小。 人 似乎使概率均匀化，使所有事件似乎 和实际情况一样 真实的博士的研究将决定动物 (in这种情况下，白足鹿鼠）显示出同样的偏见 在他们的概率评估。 这种系统性的偏见 对我们解读 行为实验 真实的医生发明了一种方法 独立建立有机体的主观感知 可能性。 通过让老鼠选择不同的 实验得出的概率，他可以构建 解释观察到的模式的主观概率 选择行为 这样他就可以划分双重因素 影响决策。 他也可能会说 一些共同的认知结构， 人类和动物的行为选择。

Decisions often must be made when the outcome of the decision process is not known but can be specified by some probability of occurring. The analysis of decision-making under such conditions of uncertainty has become a major focus of research in animal behavior. The decision process is influenced by two factors: the benefit to the organism from a particular outcome (say, a certain quantity of food) and the probability of that outcome. Most research to date has examined the manner in which organisms assess and weigh benefits, but little attention has been paid to how organisms assess and construct probabilities. A considerable amount of empirical evidence suggests that people systematically make biased estimates of probabilities. We consistently believe that low-probability events are more likely and high-probability events are less likely to occur than they actually are. People seem to homogenize probabilities, making all events seem more equally likely than they actually are. Dr. Real's research will determine the degree to which animals (in this case, white-footed deer mice) show the same kind of bias in their assessment of probabilities. Such systematic bias would have profound consequences for our ability to interpret experiments on behavior. Dr. Real has developed a means of independently establishing the organism's subjective perception of probabilities. By allowing mice to choose over different experimentally derived probabilities, he can construct the subjective probability that accounts for the pattern of observed choice behavior. In this way he can partition the dual factors influencing decision-making. He may also be able to say something about the common cognitive structures that constrain behavioral choices in humans and animals.