A Personalist Approach to Estimating Populations of Institutions

估计机构人口的个人主义方法

• 批准号: 8722149
• 负责人: Rex Brown
• 金额: $ 22.49万
• 依托单位: Decision Science Consortium Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1988
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1988-08-01 至 1991-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8722149&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Personalist; Approach; Estimating; Populations; Institutions

More than 10 million U.S. businesses and other institutions spend over two trillion dollars per year purchasing goods and services. Yet many studies have shown that over 70 percent of the money business and industry spends on new product development is spent on products that are never commercially successful. Better quality and more timely research would help this market operate more efficiently and allow U.S. suppliers to be more effective in a global economy. The recommended award will support the final (Phase II) stage of a project funded under the Small Business Innovation Research Program. In Phase II, research will be completed on a methodology for industrial market research based upon an approach to institutional estimation known as "Bayesian," in which heavy reliance is placed upon prior judgmental estimates of sources of error. Accumulated experience in application will provide a valuable capital stock of knowledge and expertise that has proven commercially valuable in other areas of market research. Specific developments will include institutional data bases along with user interfaces and analytic algorithms for performing estimation studies, and the actual performance of such studies for purposes of evaluating internal (logical) consistency and external validity, including economic valuation. The ultimate aim is to provide a commercial service for the design, evaluation, and interpretation of institutional estimation studies employed in industrial market research. Users and practitioners of industrial market research would be offered both the materials and know-how for applying innovative analytic technology in conjunction with complementary survey techniques, sampling frames, and data resources. Given that quantitative institutional research accounts for billions of dollars each year, the potential market for such a service is very large.

超过 1000 万家美国企业和其他机构每年花费超过 2 万亿美元购买商品和服务。然而许多研究表明，企业和工业在新产品开发上花费的资金中有 70% 以上都花在了从未获得商业成功的产品上。更好的质量和更及时的研究将有助于这个市场更有效地运作，并使美国供应商在全球经济中更加有效。 推荐的奖项将支持小企业创新研究计划资助的项目的最后（第二阶段）阶段。在第二阶段，将完成工业市场研究方法的研究，该方法基于称为“贝叶斯”的机构估计方法，其中严重依赖于先前对误差源的判断估计。积累的应用经验将提供宝贵的知识和专业知识资本，这些知识和专业知识已在市场研究的其他领域证明具有商业价值。具体开发将包括机构数据库以及用于进行估计研究的用户界面和分析算法，以及用于评估内部（逻辑）一致性和外部有效性（包括经济评估）的此类研究的实际表现。 最终目标是为工业市场研究中使用的机构估计研究的设计、评估和解释提供商业服务。工业市场研究的用户和从业者将获得应用创新分析技术以及补充调查技术、抽样框架和数据资源的材料和专业知识。鉴于定量机构研究每年占数十亿美元，此类服务的潜在市场非常大。