A Personalist Approach to Estimating Populations of Institutions

超过1000万家美国企业和其他机构 每年花费超过两万亿美元购买商品， 服务然而，许多研究表明，超过70%的 企业和工业界花在新产品开发上的钱， 花在从未获得商业成功的产品上。更好 高质量和更及时的研究将有助于这个市场的运作 使美国供应商能够更有效地 全球经济。 推荐的奖项将支持决赛（第二阶段） 小企业创新资助项目的阶段 研究计划。在第二阶段，将完成一项研究， 工业市场研究方法论 被称为“贝叶斯”的机构估计， 依赖于先前对来源的判断估计， 错误.积累的应用经验将提供一个 知识和专业知识的宝贵资本， 在其他市场研究领域具有商业价值。具体 发展将包括机构数据库沿着 用于执行估计的用户界面和分析算法 研究，以及此类研究的实际执行情况， 评价内部（逻辑）一致性和外部 经济价值，包括经济价值。 最终目标是为客户提供商业服务， 设计、评价和解释体制性 工业市场研究中使用的估计研究。用户 工业市场研究的从业者将是 提供了材料和技术， 分析技术结合补充调查 技术、采样框架和数据资源。鉴于 定量机构研究占数十亿美元， 美元，这种服务的潜在市场是 非常大。

More than 10 million U.S. businesses and other institutions spend over two trillion dollars per year purchasing goods and services. Yet many studies have shown that over 70 percent of the money business and industry spends on new product development is spent on products that are never commercially successful. Better quality and more timely research would help this market operate more efficiently and allow U.S. suppliers to be more effective in a global economy. The recommended award will support the final (Phase II) stage of a project funded under the Small Business Innovation Research Program. In Phase II, research will be completed on a methodology for industrial market research based upon an approach to institutional estimation known as "Bayesian," in which heavy reliance is placed upon prior judgmental estimates of sources of error. Accumulated experience in application will provide a valuable capital stock of knowledge and expertise that has proven commercially valuable in other areas of market research. Specific developments will include institutional data bases along with user interfaces and analytic algorithms for performing estimation studies, and the actual performance of such studies for purposes of evaluating internal (logical) consistency and external validity, including economic valuation. The ultimate aim is to provide a commercial service for the design, evaluation, and interpretation of institutional estimation studies employed in industrial market research. Users and practitioners of industrial market research would be offered both the materials and know-how for applying innovative analytic technology in conjunction with complementary survey techniques, sampling frames, and data resources. Given that quantitative institutional research accounts for billions of dollars each year, the potential market for such a service is very large.