Studies of Global Climate Dynamics and Predictability

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This three year research program will investigate the physical mechanisms that (a) give rise to a major mode of low frequency near-global climate variability and (b) are responsible for the evolutionary atmospheric features that allow successful short-term (seasonal to inter-annual) climate prediction. The primary data base for this analysis will be a 16-year simulation of the general circulation model from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting which was forced by observed global sea surface temperatures. The knowledge gained from (a) and (b) will be used to construct a highly parameterized numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that may be capable, in certain instances, of making successful ultra long-range climate forecasts. This work is important because it will enhance our understanding of interannual climate variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation phenomenon.