Climate Variability Studies over the Northern Hemisphere

这项研究建立在对大气-海洋系统的长期演变及其与北美地面变量(例如温度、降水和风)的短期气候变率的关系的研究的基础上，并大大扩展了这方面的研究。除了提高对这一复杂系统内相互作用的理解外，最终目标是开发更好的工具来预测较长时期的环流和气候。特别是，这项研究将涉及海温场宏观尺度特征的低频(季节到年代际)变化及其与北半球大气环流、地面温度和北美降水的关系。所采取的办法将主要是经验性的(天气学和统计学)，涉及概念物理学，并利用大气和海洋场。最后，我们将探讨地震的发生受持续重现的大气压力系统制约的可能性。尽管这个话题肯定会引起争议，但初步证据表明，月度和季节大气压力异常的大规模配置与南加州的地震之间存在联系。这项研究的重要性是，如果成功，它将导致在短(月到十年)时间尺度上改进气候预测。

This research builds upon and greatly expands studies of the long-period evolution of the atmosphere-ocean system and its relationship to short period climate variability of surface variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation and wind) over North America. Besides improving understanding of the interactions within this complex system, the ultimate goal is to develop improved tools for predicting the circulation and climate over extended periods. In particular, this study will involve the low frequency (seasonal-to-decadal) variability of macro-scale features of the SST field and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric general circulation, surface temperature and precipitation over North America. The approach taken will be primarily empirical (synoptic and statistical), involving conceptual physics and employing atmospheric and oceanic fields. Finally, the possibility that the occurrence of earthquakes is conditioned by persistently recurrent atmospheric pressure systems will be investigated. Although this topic is bound to be controversial, preliminary evidence suggests a link between the large-scale configuration of monthly and seasonal atmospheric pressure anomalies and earthquakes in Southern California. The importance of this research is that if successful, it will lead to improved climate prediction on short (monthly to decadal) time scales.