Climate Variability Studies over the Northern Hemisphere

这项研究建立在并极大地扩展了对大气-海洋系统的长期演变及其与北美表面变量（如温度、降水和风）的短期气候变率关系的研究之上。除了提高对这一复杂系统内部相互作用的理解外，最终目标是开发改进的工具来预测长时间内的环流和气候。特别是，本研究将涉及海温场宏观尺度特征的低频（季节-年代际）变率及其与北半球大气环流、地表温度和北美降水的关系。所采取的方法将主要是经验性的（天气和统计），涉及概念物理学并利用大气和海洋场。最后，将研究地震发生是由持续反复出现的大气压力系统所决定的可能性。尽管这一话题必然会引起争议，但初步证据表明，南加州的月度和季节性大气压力异常的大规模配置与地震之间存在联系。这项研究的重要性在于，如果成功，它将改善短期（每月到十年）时间尺度的气候预测。

This research builds upon and greatly expands studies of the long-period evolution of the atmosphere-ocean system and its relationship to short period climate variability of surface variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation and wind) over North America. Besides improving understanding of the interactions within this complex system, the ultimate goal is to develop improved tools for predicting the circulation and climate over extended periods. In particular, this study will involve the low frequency (seasonal-to-decadal) variability of macro-scale features of the SST field and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric general circulation, surface temperature and precipitation over North America. The approach taken will be primarily empirical (synoptic and statistical), involving conceptual physics and employing atmospheric and oceanic fields. Finally, the possibility that the occurrence of earthquakes is conditioned by persistently recurrent atmospheric pressure systems will be investigated. Although this topic is bound to be controversial, preliminary evidence suggests a link between the large-scale configuration of monthly and seasonal atmospheric pressure anomalies and earthquakes in Southern California. The importance of this research is that if successful, it will lead to improved climate prediction on short (monthly to decadal) time scales.