Prediction of Earthquake Strong Ground Motion

这项研究计划的目的是调查地震强地面运动的某些方面，这些方面与减少地震灾害的工程研究有关。重点是利用有关震源、传播路径、地震的地质和地球物理信息来预测强地面运动。而局部场地效应则发生在记录运动的位置。这项研究涉及两个主题：第一个是预测由于圣安德烈亚斯断层的莫哈韦段破裂而产生的强烈地面运动。第二部分讨论了强震预测中的一个关键问题，即发展有效的方法来确定所提出的震源模型中的参数。由地震引起的强地面运动的测量和估计是工程减灾研究的起点。必须对特定地点的预期地面震动做出某种估计：这项研究正在解决改进这些估计的非常有希望的方法。因此，这项研究有望为提高防震减灾的准确性和有效性做出基础性贡献。

The objective of this research program is to investigate certain aspects of earthquake strong ground motions that are relevant to engineering research on earthquake hazard reduction. The focus is on the prediction of strong ground motions using geological and geophysical information on the earthquake source, the propagation path, and the local site effects at the location where the motions are recorded. The research addresses two topics: The first is to predict the strong ground motions that would occur as a result of the rupture of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault. The second addresses a key issue in strong ground motion prediction; namely the development of effective methods to determine the parameters in proposed earthquake source models. Measured and estimated earthquake-induced strong ground motions are the starting point for engineering research into earthquake hazard mitigation. Some sort of estimate has to be made of the expected ground shaking at a particular site: this research is addressing very promising approaches to improvements on these estimates. Thus this research is expected to make a fundamental contribution to improving the accuracy and effectiveness of earthquake hazard mitigation.