Prediction of Earthquake Strong Ground Motion

本研究计划的目的是研究地震强震的某些方面，这些方面与减少地震危害的工程研究有关。重点是利用地震震源的地质和地球物理信息、传播路径以及记录地震地点的局部场地效应来预测强地面运动。该研究涉及两个主题：第一个是预测由于圣安德烈亚斯断层的莫哈韦部分破裂而发生的强烈地面运动。第二种方法解决了强地震动预测中的一个关键问题；即开发有效的方法来确定所提出的震源模型中的参数。地震引起的强地震动的测量和估计是地震减灾工程研究的起点。必须对特定地点的预期地面震动进行某种估计：这项研究正在解决非常有前途的方法来改进这些估计。因此，本研究有望为提高地震减灾的准确性和有效性做出根本性的贡献。

The objective of this research program is to investigate certain aspects of earthquake strong ground motions that are relevant to engineering research on earthquake hazard reduction. The focus is on the prediction of strong ground motions using geological and geophysical information on the earthquake source, the propagation path, and the local site effects at the location where the motions are recorded. The research addresses two topics: The first is to predict the strong ground motions that would occur as a result of the rupture of the Mojave segment of the San Andreas fault. The second addresses a key issue in strong ground motion prediction; namely the development of effective methods to determine the parameters in proposed earthquake source models. Measured and estimated earthquake-induced strong ground motions are the starting point for engineering research into earthquake hazard mitigation. Some sort of estimate has to be made of the expected ground shaking at a particular site: this research is addressing very promising approaches to improvements on these estimates. Thus this research is expected to make a fundamental contribution to improving the accuracy and effectiveness of earthquake hazard mitigation.