The Discrete Dynamics of Labor Demand

该项目涉及劳动力需求模型的估计， 包括固定和二次变量调整成本。 模型 将根据七种耐用品的现有月度数据进行估算 工厂和航空公司的现有数据，以及新的月度数据 为快餐店。 目标是检查固定的 调整成本似乎是耐用品工厂的特征 说明其他地方的调整，并推断它们是否反映了成本 原因是：（1）工人之间的安排遭到破坏;（2） 劳动者群体与流动资本的互补性; 隐含的劳动合同，规定了最大限度的就业与裁员 当需求低的时候。 此外，模拟一般均衡 将建立一个模型来研究税收的动态影响， 补贴，注意到工资税率的微小变化， 给定离散的需求动态。 边际效应和 标准就业补贴也将在劳动力需求 调整离散。 &&本研究的目的是探讨就业是如何 受工资和产品需求变化的影响。 虽然已经 关于这个普遍问题的大量研究，没有人研究过 这是在单个工厂的水平上使用数据。 结果， 到目前为止，还不可能推断出它的真实结构。 决定就业如何对产出变化作出反应的成本， 工资 这是令人遗憾的，因为知道这些费用的性质， 可以让我们推断出政策的可能影响， 影响调整成本，如提前通知裁员和工厂 关闭，强制性职位空缺列表，以及其他。 这 研究是重要的，因为它应该提高我们的能力， 推断这些政策的潜在后果。

This project involves the estimation of a labor demand model which includes both fixed and quadratic variable adjustment costs. The model will be estimated with existing, monthly data for seven durable goods plants and existing data for airline firms and with new, monthly data for fast-food outlets. The goals are to examine whether the fixed adjustment costs that appear to characterize the durable-goods plants describe adjustment elsewhere and to infer whether they reflect costs stemming from: 1) Disruption of arrangements among workers; 2) Complementarity of groups of workers with lumpy capital; and 3) Implicit labor contracts that specify maximum employment with layoffs when demand is low. In addition, a simulation general equilibrium model will be constructed to examine the dynamic effects of taxes and subsidies, noting the incidence of small changes in payroll tax rates, given discrete demand dynamics. The relative impacts of marginal and standard employment subsidies will also be examined when labor demand adjusts discretely. &&The purpose of this research is to examine the how employment is affected by changes in wages and product demand. While there has been a large amount of research on this general issue, no one has examined this using data at the level of the individual plant. As result it has not been possible, up to this point, to infer the true structure of the costs that determine how employment reacts to changes in output and wages. This is regrettable because knowing the nature of these costs would allow us to infer the probable impacts of policies that could affect adjustment costs such as advanced notice of layoffs and plant closings, mandatory listing of job vacancies, and others. This research is important because it should increase our ability to better infer the potential consequences of such policies.