A New Tool for Analyzing Embodied Technological Change and Its Implications for Competitiveness, Obsolescence, Employ- ment, Profits and the Structure of the US Industrial Base

1980-1984年期间，在美元走强的重要推动下，全球制造能力显著扩大。新兴工业化国家已经出现，因为它们的资本中有相当大一部分是相对较新的，能够非常有效地与美国生产商竞争。他们这样做的部分原因是，这项新投资体现了与最新技术相关的成本结构，而美国工业定价反映了许多行业使用较新的厂房和设备。由于这场竞争，美国政府面临着重大政策问题。同样，直接面对这种竞争的美国公司必须做出投资新技术的决定，如果是这样的话，投资应该在国内还是在国外。该项目是由小型企业创新研究计划资助的第二阶段奖项。这项研究的目的是开发和测试一种新的分析技术，以确定每一个四位数的美国制造业所使用的技术范围。这项研究将利用1982年和1987年制造业普查的数据。此外，还将编制关于单一机构新投资的纵向数据系列。这将通过在人口普查局直接使用微观数据来实现，人口普查局还提供了一个机会，以前所未有的方式进行先进的基础研究和开发适销对路的工具。这项研究将最终建立一个数据库，清楚地确定每个行业使用的技术范围，并确定与每种技术有关的单位成本和生产的其他方面。这些数据将持续用于评估新技术投资对行业和地理区域的竞争力、就业、成本和利润的影响。该数据库还将有助于预测每个行业的投资速度。

Worldwide manufacturing capacity expanded markedly in the 1980- 1984 period, prompted in important ways by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Newly industrialized countries have emerged who, because such a substantial portion of their capital is relatively new, are able to compete very effectively with U.S. producers. They do so, in part, because this new investment embodies cost structures associated with the latest technology, while U.S. industrial pricing reflects the use of plant and equipment of less recent vintage in many industries. The U.S. government is faced with major policy issues as a result of this competition. Similarly, the U.S. firms which face this competition directly must make decisions about investing in new technologies, and if so, whether the investment should be here or abroad. This project is a Phase II award funded under the Small Business Innovation Research Program. The purpose of this research is to develop and test a new analytical technique for determining the range of technologies in use each of the four-digit U.S. manufacturing industries. The research will utilize data from both the 1982 and 1987 Census of Manufacturing. In addition, a longitudinal data series on new investment by a single establishment will be prepared. This will be accomplished by working directly with the micro data at the Census Bureau, which also provides an opportunity to do advanced basic research and develop marketable tools in a manner never before possible. The research will culminate in the creation of a data base that will clearly identify the range of technologies in use in each industry and identify unit costs and other aspects of production associated with each technology. These data will be utilized on an ongoing basis for evaluating the effects of investments in new technologies on competitiveness, employment, costs and profits at the industry level and by geographic regions. The database will also be useful in predicting the pace at which investment will be undertaken in each industry.