Extensive and Intensive Growth

该项目旨在扩大最近的创新增长 理论和发展经济学，以解释不同的 不同国家和时期的增长模式。 最近的工作已经解决了这个问题，但最重要的是， 已经出现的模型，如卢卡斯，罗默，或 Boeon-Prescott倾向于预测经济体的类似行为 类似的初始条件。 他们无法解释 事实上，许多看起来相对相似的国家， 在某些时间点（比如1940年左右的加拿大和阿根廷）， 在以后的日子里，经济上看起来非常不同。 在他们之前的工作中，主要研究人员 给出了如何发展理论来解释为什么 具有类似“初始条件”的经济体遵循非常 人均产出的不同时间路径。 本提案中 他们试图扩展他们早期的工作，以整合一个 内生种群动力学理论与人均理论 人均收入决定。现有的增长模型表明， 人口和（人均）收入动态应相互作用。这 建议提出了几种模式，进行这一富有成效的 研究路线。 更具体地说，研究人员建议制定一个 内生人口增长的动力学理论， 符合既定的历史发展模式 并有助于确定一些不太明显的原因， 在很长一段时间内，有些国家的增长速度比其他国家快。 在他们试图阐明的问题中，（i）一个逻辑 欧洲和亚洲许多地区的人口增长模式 在过去的400年里;（二）许多通道 成功地从早期广泛的发展中国家 （三）经济增长速度加快; 周期约为十六年;及（iv） 增长最慢的往往是最贫穷的国家。 的 基本理论不同于现有的文献， 传统经济中的儿童是以 主要作为生产要素，而不是消费要素 货物，贸易条件允许由内部确定， 家庭谈判，而不是竞争性市场。 新型号的设计很好，以满足一系列丰富的 问题，但仍然可以分析。 不仅 他们从增长理论的角度提出了挑战， 发展经济学，但它们也与政策高度相关。 尽管其他研究人员在这一关键问题上进展甚微， 到目前为止，调查人员的工作已经足够了 先进的给承诺的各种重大成果。

This project seeks to expand on recent innovations in growth theory and development economics in order to explain different patterns of growth in different countries and time periods. Recent work has addressed this topic but the most important models which have emerged, such as those of Lucas, Romer, or Boyd-Prescott, tend to predict similar behavior for economies with similar initial conditions. They are unable to account for the fact that a variety of countries that look relatively similar at certain points in time (say Canada and Argentina around 1940) look very different economically at later dates. In their own previous work, the principal investigators have given examples of how theories can be developed to explain why economies with similar "initial conditions" follow very different time paths for per capita output. In this proposal they seek to extend their earlier work in order to integrate a theory of endogenous population dynamics with a theory of per capita income determination. Existing growth models suggest that population and (per capita) income dynamics should interact. This proposal sets forth several models that carry on this fruitful line of research. More specifically, the investigators propose to elaborate a dynamical theory of endogenous population growth that is consistent with well-established historical development patterns and helpful in identifying some of the less obvious reasons why some countries grow faster than others over long periods of time. Among the regularities they seek to illuminate are (i) a logistic pattern of population growth in many parts of Europe and Asia over the last four hundred years; (ii) the passage of many successfully developing countries from an early extensive period of economic growth to a later intensive period; (iii) fertility cycles with a period of approximately sixteen years; and (iv) the slowest growth often occurs in the poorest countries. The underlying theory differs from existing literature on endogenous fertility in that children in traditional economies are modelled primarily as factors of production rather than as consumption goods, and the terms of trade are allowed to be set by intra- family bargaining instead of competitive markets. The new models are well designed to answer a rich set of questions, but are still tractable to analyze. Not only are they challenging from the standpoint of growth theory and development economics, but they are also highly policy-relevant. Although other researchers have made little progress on the key issues to date, the work of the investigators is far enough advanced to give promise of a variety of significant results.