Precautionary Saving Due to Income Risk: Theory and Evidence

经济理论以及普通的直觉都表明， 未来收入的不确定性将对 人们的消费和储蓄决定。 这种影响 消费选择的不确定性不仅仅是理论上的 重要性，因为它们可能对（1）产生重要影响。 社会和私人保险对储蓄率的影响， (2)政府债务对风险投资的影响;（4）政府债务对风险投资的影响; 财富流动对消费的影响;（5） 短期和长期真实的利率水平， 消费增长率。 该项目的目的是 发展和分析消费模式的条件下， 不确定性 以前的研究主要集中在相对简单的 两期模型 这个项目涉及使用更多的 现实的多阶段模型。 这些模型将通过以下方式进行分析： 使用模拟来估计预防措施的影响 储蓄行为

Economic theory, as well as ordinary intuition, indicates that uncertainty about future income should have important effects on people's consumption and savings decisions. Such effects of uncertainty on consumption choices are of more than theoretical significance, since they could have an important influence on (1) the effect of social and private insurance on the saving rate, (2) the effect of government debt on risky investment, (4) the effect of movements in wealth on consumption, and (5) the effects of short-term and long-term real interest rates on the level and rate of growth of consumption. The purpose of this project is to develop and analyze models of consumption under conditions of uncertainty. Previous research has focused on relatively simple tow period models. This project well involve the use of more realistic multi-period models. The models will be analyzed by the use of simulations to estimate the effects of precautionary saving behavior.