Expectations and Indeterminacy of Monetary Equilibria in Experimental Economics

实验经济学中货币均衡的预期和不确定性

• 批准号: 8912552
• 负责人: Shyam Sunder
• 金额: $ 16.46万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1989
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1989-07-15 至 1991-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8912552&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Expectations; Indeterminacy; Monetary; Equilibria; Experimental

What people do (i.e., work, save, or spend) depends in part on what they expect the future to be. Their actions, in turn, influence what actually happens in the future. Rational expectations models of economic behavior are based on a key requirement that a person's expectations about the future be consistent with the logical consequences of their current decisions. A better understanding of many macroeconomic phenomena has been gained by the development of rational-expectations equilibrium models. Nonetheless, current economic theory leaves some crucial questions unanswered. Specifically, economic models in which multiple pairs of mutually consistent actions and expectations exist yield ambiguous predictions and policy prescriptions. This problem could be resolved if it were known how people learn from expectations. For example, in current models of the dynamics of hyperinflation, it impossible to know, with any reasonable precision, the impact of reducing government deficits on inflation. In order to better understand the causes of inflation and to discover effective counter measures, it is necessary to learn much more about how people form expectations. The purpose of this project is to develop innovative laboratory methods and to apply them to the analysis of expectation formation, inflation, and government deficits.

人们所做的（即，工作、储蓄或支出）部分取决于 他们对未来的期望 他们的行为，反过来， 影响未来的实际情况。 理性 经济行为的预期模型是基于一个关键的 要求一个人对未来的期望是 符合其当前的逻辑后果 决策 对许多宏观经济现象的更好理解， 理性预期均衡的发展 模型 尽管如此，当前的经济理论仍然留下了一些关键的 没有答案的问题 具体而言，经济模型中， 多对相互一致的行动和期望 存在产生模糊的预测和政策处方。 这 如果知道人们是如何学习的， 预期 例如，在目前的动态模型中， 恶性通货膨胀，不可能知道，与任何合理的 准确地说，减少政府赤字对 通胀 为了更好地理解通货膨胀的原因 为了找到有效的对策， 了解更多关于人们如何形成期望。 目的 该项目的目的是开发创新的实验室方法， 将其应用于预期形成的分析， 通货膨胀和政府赤字。