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Indeterminacy of Equilibrium and the Roles of Fiscal and Monetary Policies

均衡的不确定性以及财政和货币政策的作用

基本信息

批准号：
16530117
负责人：
MINO Kazuo
金额：
$ 1.54万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This research focuses on the role of fiscal and monetary policies in the economies with multiple equilibria. We have first investigated the effects of policy changes in the presence of equilibrium indeterminacy. In particular, we examine whether or not counter intuitive policy effects emerge when there are multiple converging equilibria It is shown that the results depend heavily upon the specifications of production technology and preference structure. We have revealed this fact in alternative monetary growth models as well as in models with distortionary income taxation. In dealing with monetary growth models, we consider both the constant money growth rule and the interest rate control rule. In the models with fiscal policies, we have examined various effects of capital-income tax, wage-income tax as well as consumption tax.The second purpose of our research is to consider the relationship between policy impacts and indeterminacy of equilibrium in the models that are more general than the standard analytical frameworks used in the literature. In so doing, we have studied (1) a growth model with environmental (negative) externalities, (2) an overlapping generation model with endogenous occupational choice, (3) a model of endogenous technical change with knowledge diffusion, and (4) a growth model with R&D investment and taxation. By examining these specific models, we have found various policy implications in the presence of equilibrium indeterminacy.

本研究的重点是财政和货币政策在多重均衡经济中的作用。我们首先研究了在均衡不确定性存在的情况下政策变化的影响。特别是，我们研究是否出现反直观的政策效果时，有多个收敛均衡。结果表明，在很大程度上取决于生产技术和偏好结构的规格。我们已经在替代货币增长模型以及扭曲性所得税模型中揭示了这一事实。在处理货币增长模型时，我们同时考虑了货币不变增长规则和利率控制规则。在包含财政政策的模型中，我们考察了资本所得税、工资所得税以及消费税的各种影响。第二个研究目的是，在比文献中使用的标准分析框架更一般的模型中，考察政策影响与均衡不确定性之间的关系。在此过程中，我们研究了（1）具有环境（负）外部性的增长模型，（2）具有内生职业选择的世代重叠模型，（3）具有知识扩散的内生技术变化模型，（4）具有R&D投资和税收的增长模型。通过考察这些具体模型，我们发现了在均衡不确定性存在的情况下的各种政策含义。