Presidential Young Investigators Award - Estimation of Exceedance Probabilities of Extreme Storms

这位年轻总统的研究计划 研究者分为三个部分：1） 极端危险的量化 暴雨; 2）风险量化 极端洪水;和3）纳入 将方法论发展为基于风险的 决策框架。 基于工作 关于风暴区域化和 风暴概率方法 第一部分，第二部分。 调查包括评估 极端风暴数据库和发展 记录会计估计方法 不完全性;发展随机空间 模型;研究分析的可行性 渐近逼近的尾巴 使用极值理论的分布;以及 确定备选方案的可靠性 估计程序和量化 概率不确定度 估算 第二部分包括 空间变异性研究 几个盆地特征与 极端条件下降雨径流转化 条件;研究和评估 土地利用变化对洪水的影响 风暴数据库的同质转换， 洪水;调查的性能 几个降雨/径流模型转换 洪水过程线中的极端降雨量;以及 将所有调查结果整合到一种方法中， 估计特大洪水的概率 并评估其可靠性 估算 第三部分是运用 开发模型到真实的系统， 将其纳入基于风险的决策 制作框架。

The research plan for this Presidential Young Investigator is divided in three parts: 1) quantification of the risk of extreme rainstorms; 2) quantification of the risk of extreme floods; and 3) incorporation of the developed methodology into a risk-based decision-making framework. Based on work done on storm regionalization and a probabilistic approach to storm transposition, the first part of the investigation includes the assessment of extreme storm data base and development of estimation methods to account for record incompleteness; develop stochastic spatial models; study the feasibility of analytic asymptotic approximations to the tails of the distributions using extreme value theory; and determine the reliability of alternative estimation procedures and quantify the uncertainty of the exceedance probability estimates. The second part comprises research on the spatial variability of several basin characteristics relevant to rainfall/runoff transformations under extreme conditions; study and assess the effects of land use changes on resulting floods for the homogeneous conversion of storm data bases to floods; investigate the performance of several rainfall/runoff models for converting extreme rainfall into flood hydrographs; and integrate all findings into a method for estimating probabilities of extreme floods and assess the reliability of those estimates. The third part is to apply the developed models to real systems and to incorporate them into a risk-based decision making framework.