Regional Economic Growth in U.S. Manufacturing Industries

最近关于美国经济增长的讨论主要有四个主要问题：1973年开始的生产率放缓，战后各地区增长的巨大差异，生产率和美国国际竞争力之间的关系，以及公共基础设施恶化对国家经济表现的影响。该项目对区域生产率增长的分析可能会为所有这些问题提供重要的见解。在这个项目中，将估计1951-1986年期间9个地区中每一个地区21个行业的增长率和生产力水平。这种方法与国家生产率研究的分化趋势是一致的。尽管这种细分集中在更狭隘的行业细节上，但专注于地区增长很可能会带来进一步的收益。该项目的结果将回答几个重要的问题：(1)某些地区的生产率增长是否比其他地区更快？(2)生产率放缓有限吗？到少数地区，或者它更普遍？(3)是否有证据表明地区生产率水平正在趋同？(4)地区生产率差异是否与行业特征、城市化程度、教育支出、区域公共基础设施投资、资本等公共政策？

Four major problems have dominated recent discussions of U.S. economic growth: the productivity slowdown that began in 1973, the dramatic differences in growth across regions throughout the postwar era, the relationship between productivity and U.S. international competitiveness, and the impact of the deterioration of the public infrastructure on the nation's economic performance. The analysis of regional productivity growth from this project could potentially offer important insights into all of these issues. In this project, the growth rate and level of productivity in twenty one industries for each of nine regions over the 1951-1986 period will be estimated. This approach parallels the trend in national productivity research toward disaggregation. Although this disaggregation has focused on narrower industry detail, it is likely that focusing on regional growth will lead to further gains. The results of the project will allow several important questions to be answered: (1) Has productivity grown more rapidly in some regions than others? (2) Was the productivity slowdown limited to a small number of regions, or was it more pervasive? (3) Is there any evidence that regional productivity levels are converging? (4) Are regional differences in productivity correlated with industrial characteristics, the degree of urbanization, education expenditures, regional investment in public infrastructure capital, and other public policies?