Empirical and Theoretical Models of Earnings and Employment

本项目包括劳动经济学领域的几项研究：(1)工龄回归；（二）补偿工资差异；(3)失业持续时间的周期性行为；（四）仲裁、调解；(5)工资结构的变化。连接前三个项目的一个重要主题是，未能解释劳动力市场流动性的原因和影响，导致许多对收入和就业决定因素的传统估计至少难以解释，而且可能存在偏见。在第一个项目中，将对苏丹生命线行动返回所有权的可转移性进行系统的实证调查。与现有的研究相反，将使用来自各种样本的数据。将区分因裁员而失业的工人和因工厂关闭而失业的工人。至少将发展两种理论模型，强调可转让收益的不同可能来源。理论和实证工作将通过测试预测的移动-停留和匹配质量模型相结合。对于第二个项目，因工厂关闭而失业的工人样本将用于研究补偿性工资差异。这将允许在估计微分时近似解决内生工作变化问题。第三个项目将涉及两组假设的检验，即经济衰退期间临时裁员的增加是导致总失业率上升与失业逃逸率上升相关这一发现的原因。这些测试将涉及失业工人的样本和收入动态小组调查的样本。第四个项目将扩展现有的关于解决争端的文献，将调解纳入其中，并允许调解人可能是一个自利的代理人。该项目的理论部分将涉及对学习过程进行建模，特别注意调解的时间相对于解决争端机制的其他方面，以及在该过程的各个阶段学习的可能性。该项目的实证部分将涉及调查和解率和在进程的不同阶段通过和不通过调解达成的协议的特点。最后的项目将研究美国和其他经合组织经济体工资结构的变化。其中一部分将研究美国公共部门的工资结构如何对20世纪70年代和80年代私营部门工资结构的变化作出反应。第二部分将比较美国和其他经合组织国家的技能工资差异变化。

This project consists of several studies in the area of labor economics: (1) the return to job seniority; (2) compensating wage differentials; (3) the cyclical behavior of unemployment durations; (4) arbitration and mediation; and (5) changes in the structure of wages. An important theme linking the first three projects is that the failure to account for the causes and effects of labor market mobility leads many conventional estimate of the determinants of earnings and employment to be at least difficult to interpret and probably biased. In the first project, a systematic empirical investigation of the transferability of the OLS return to tenure will be conducted. In contrast with the existing research, data from a variety of samples will be used. A distinction will be made between those workers displaced by layoffs and those displaced by plant closings. At least two theoretical models will be developed that emphasize different possible sources of transferable return. The theoretical and empirical work will be integrated by testing the predictions of the mover-stayer and match-quality models. For the second project, a sample of workers displaced by plant closings will be used to study compensating wage differentials. This will allow an approximate solution to the problem of endogenous job change in estimating differentials. The third project will involve two sets of tests of the hypothesis that the increase in temporary layoffs during a recession is responsible for the finding that an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate is associated with an increase in the escape rate from unemployment. These tests will involve both a sample of displaced workers and a sample from the Panel Survey on Income Dynamics. The fourth project will extend the existing literature on dispute resolution to incorporate mediation and allow the possibility that the mediator may be a self-interested agent. The theoretical part of the project will involve modeling the learning process with particular attention to the timing of mediation relative to other aspects of the dispute resolution mechanism and the potential for learning at various stages of the process. The empirical part of the project will involve investigating settlement rates and characteristics of agreements reached with and without mediation at different stages of the process. The final project will examine changes in the structure of wages in the U.S. and selected other OECD economies. One part will examine how the wage structure in the U.S. public sector has responded to changes in the wage structure in the private sector during the 1970s and 1980s. The second part will compare changes in wage differential by skill in the U.S. and other OECD countries.