Knightian Uncertainty, General Equilibrium Theory and Macroeconomics

该项目支持经济学的理论研究， 一种替代性的决策理论 不确定性下的选择。 波格特判决 理论 解释，除其他外，如何不同的个人与 同样的客观信息可以附加不同的主观信息 概率未知的事件。 因此，理论 创建一个连贯的框架，其中患有smae的个人 信息可以有不同的意见， 不确定性 意见的分歧造成了 个人之间的主观信息，因为他们不知道 每个 别人的意见。 研究表明，这些 不对称性可能有助于解释重要的经济现象， 作为 价格行为、裁员和罢工。 的最终目标 项目是加深我们对一般均衡的理解， 在一般均衡中可能存在的资源利用不足。 它还提供了一个更深入的理论分析， 补救办法 资源的不充分利用。 弗兰克的决策理论赋予了他行为上的意义 奈特对风险和不确定性的区分。 根据 这些定义，赌博是有风险的，如果它的概率 结果是已知的，如果不知道，就不确定。 的 该项目对决策理论的发展是一个 这是一个重要的贡献，因为这个新理论解释了一个数字， 不同类型的决策， 标准贝叶斯决策理论 其中包括失败 某些市场提供保险，讨价还价的行为， 导致罢工和裁员的劳资关系， 个人储蓄对利率变化不敏感。

This project supports theoretical research on the economic implications of Knightian decision theory, an alternative formulation of choice under uncertainty. Knightian decision theory explains, among other things, how different individuals with the same objective information could attach different subjective probabilities to events of unknown probability. Thus, the theory creates a coherent framework in which individuals with the smae information could have different opinions about choices under uncertainty. The differences of opinion create asymmetries of subjective information among individuals, for they do not know each others' opinions. The research elaborates the view that these asymmetries may help explain important economic phenomena, such as price behavior, layoffs, and strikes. The ultimate goal of the project is to deepen our understanding of general equilibrium and the possible underemployment of resources in general equilibrium. It also provides a deeper theoretical anlysis of possible remedies for the underemployment of resources. Knightian decision theory gives behavioral significance to Frank Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty. According to these definitions, a gamble is risky if the probabilities of its outcomes are known and it is uncertain if they are not known. The development of Knightian decision theory by this project is an important contribution because this new theory explains a number of different types of decisions that appear irrational according to standard Bayesian decision theory. These include the failure of certain markets to provide insurance, bargaining behavior of labor and management that produces strikes and layoffs and the insensitivity of personal saving to changes in interest rates.