Knightian Uncertainty, General Equilibrium Theory and Macroeconomics

奈特不确定性、一般均衡理论和宏观经济学

• 批准号: 9011194
• 负责人: Truman Bewley
• 金额: $ 3.67万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1990
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1990-08-15 至 1992-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9011194&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Knightian; Uncertainty; General; Equilibrium; Theory

This project supports theoretical research on the economic implications of Knightian decision theory, an alternative formulation of choice under uncertainty. Knightian decision theory explains, among other things, how different individuals with the same objective information could attach different subjective probabilities to events of unknown probability. Thus, the theory creates a coherent framework in which individuals with the smae information could have different opinions about choices under uncertainty. The differences of opinion create asymmetries of subjective information among individuals, for they do not know each others' opinions. The research elaborates the view that these asymmetries may help explain important economic phenomena, such as price behavior, layoffs, and strikes. The ultimate goal of the project is to deepen our understanding of general equilibrium and the possible underemployment of resources in general equilibrium. It also provides a deeper theoretical anlysis of possible remedies for the underemployment of resources. Knightian decision theory gives behavioral significance to Frank Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty. According to these definitions, a gamble is risky if the probabilities of its outcomes are known and it is uncertain if they are not known. The development of Knightian decision theory by this project is an important contribution because this new theory explains a number of different types of decisions that appear irrational according to standard Bayesian decision theory. These include the failure of certain markets to provide insurance, bargaining behavior of labor and management that produces strikes and layoffs and the insensitivity of personal saving to changes in interest rates.

该项目支持奈特决策理论的经济影响的理论研究，奈特决策理论是不确定性下选择的替代表述。 奈特决策理论解释了，除其他外，具有相同客观信息的不同个体如何将不同的主观概率附加到未知概率的事件。 因此，该理论创建了一个连贯的框架，在这个框架中，拥有smae信息的个体可以对不确定性下的选择有不同的看法。 观点的差异造成了个体之间主观信息的不对称，因为他们不了解彼此的观点。 该研究阐述了这样的观点：这些不对称性可能有助于解释重要的经济现象，例如价格行为、裁员和罢工。 该项目的最终目标是加深我们对一般均衡以及一般均衡下可能存在的资源利用不足的理解。 它还对资源利用不足的可能补救措施进行了更深入的理论分析。 奈特决策理论为弗兰克·奈特对风险和不确定性的区分赋予了行为意义。 根据这些定义，如果赌博结果的概率已知，则赌博是有风险的；如果结果的概率未知，则赌博是不确定的。 该项目对奈特决策理论的发展是一项重要贡献，因为这一新理论解释了根据标准贝叶斯决策理论看来不合理的许多不同类型的决策。 其中包括某些市场未能提供保险、劳动力和管理层的讨价还价行为导致罢工和裁员以及个人储蓄对利率变化不敏感。