Knightian Uncertainty, General Equilibrium Theory and Macroeconomics

奈特不确定性、一般均衡理论和宏观经济学

• 批准号: 9110139
• 负责人: Truman Bewley
• 金额: $ 9.35万
• 依托单位: Yale University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-09-01 至 1994-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9110139&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Knightian; Uncertainty; General; Equilibrium; Theory

The behavior of labor markets seems extremely puzzling from the point of view of economic theory and especially the theory of competitive equilibrium. Perhaps the biggest puzzle is the insensitivity of wages to the unemployment rate. High unemployment should represent an excess supply of labor, yet the unemployed do not seem to bid down wages very effectively. If labor markets acted like truly competitive markets, then wages should plunge in the face of high unemployment, just as stock and commodity markets sometimes do. Yet wage cuts in recessions seem to be moderate and infrequent. Another puzzle is that wages do not always respond immediately and completely to changes in the consumer price index, whereas most theories of wages determine real, not nominal wages. A third puzzle is the occurrence of strikes. Strikes seem to cause an unnecessary loss to both employer and employees, since it should be possible to anticipate the consequences of a strike and reach an agreement without one. The thesis of this project is that these and other puzzles in economics can be best explained by a new theory of decision making under uncertainty that captures the instability or fragility of expectations. This grant also supports theoretical research on general equilibrium models which express macroeconomic phenomena. The distinctive feature of these models is that firms are able to compete effectively only in the long-run; in the short-run firms have difficulty invading each others markets. This difficulty would make firms have a low short-run elasticity of demand for labor. The rivalry among firms would be expressed by a non- cooperative equilibrium. The conditions under which such an equilibrium will exist are rigorously defined. Unemployment is shown to exist and fluctuate. The determinants of the average growth rate of the economy are analyzed and shown to offer a plausible explanation of the wide variation of growth rates among countries. The welfare losses resulting from unemployment and from the monopoly power of businesses are estimated. The project compares the costs and benefits of wage controls within such a theoretical framework. The project also analyzes government policies controlling inflation.

从经济理论尤其是竞争均衡理论的角度来看，劳动力市场的行为似乎非常令人费解。也许最大的困惑是工资对失业率的不敏感。高失业率本应代表劳动力供给过剩，但失业者似乎并没有非常有效地压低工资。如果劳动力市场像真正的竞争市场一样运作，那么面对高失业率，工资应该大幅下降，就像股票和大宗商品市场有时所做的那样。然而，在经济衰退中，工资削减似乎是温和的，而且并不频繁。另一个难题是，工资并不总是对消费者价格指数的变化做出立即和完全的反应，而大多数工资理论决定的是实际工资，而不是名义工资。第三个难题是罢工的发生。罢工似乎对雇主和雇员都造成了不必要的损失，因为预料罢工的后果并在没有罢工的情况下达成协议应该是可能的。这个项目的主旨是，经济学中的这些和其他难题可以用一种新的不确定性下的决策理论来最好地解释，这种理论抓住了预期的不稳定性或脆弱性。该基金还支持表达宏观经济现象的一般均衡模型的理论研究。这些模型的显著特征是，企业只有在长期内才能有效竞争；在短期内，企业很难侵入彼此的市场。这种困难会使企业对劳动力的需求具有较低的短期弹性。企业间的竞争表现为非合作均衡。这种平衡存在的条件是严格规定的。失业是存在的，而且是波动的。对经济平均增长率的决定因素进行了分析，并给出了合理的解释，以解释各国之间增长率的巨大差异。对失业和企业垄断造成的福利损失进行了估计。该项目在这样一个理论框架内比较了工资控制的成本和收益。该项目还分析了政府控制通货膨胀的政策。