Climate Fluctuations and Climate Sensitivity Studies

NCAR CCM长模型运行的初步检验 理想化的地理环境表明地表温度 场可以被解释为一个受空间噪声影响的系统- 时间 线性系统可以解释为能量平衡 具有扩散水平热输送的气候模式， 线性辐射阻尼 两种模型中的表面温度场都有几个 有趣的属性。 例如，空间相关性 统计数据在几个距离上基本上是各向同性的 一千公里。 空间相关性随着 约1500 km的特征长度，与EBM一致 以及地表温度数据。线性理论表明， 点热源的气候响应 应该会呈现出一种空间模式 空间自相关函数 这似乎是事实 在CCM表面数据中。 这些证据有助于 解释为什么循证医学在早期的研究中如此成功， 季节循环甚至各种古气候情景 与数据和GCM相比。 本研究将研究 气候变率和变化的基本机制， 简单的模型。 PI将系统地检查通量， 相关气象领域，以澄清的原因， 气候波动和响应的明显线性 现象。 这项研究很重要，因为它可能会给 深入了解气候系统是如何工作的-这是 更可靠的未来气候预测。

Preliminary examination of a long model run of the NCAR CCM with idealized geography indicates that the surface temperature field can be interpreted as an system forced by noise in space- time. The linear system can be interpreted as an energy-balance climate model (EBM) with diffusive horizontal heat transport and linear radiation damping. The surface temperature field in both models has several interesting properties. For example, the spatial correlation statistics are essentially isotropic over distances of a few thousand km. The spatial correlations fall off with a characteristic length of about 1500 km which agrees with the EBM and with surface temperature data. Linear theory suggests that climatological (=time averaged) responses to point heat sources should exhibit a spatial pattern identical to the equal times spatial auto correlation function. This appears to be the case in the CCM surface data. These pieces of evidence help to explain why the EBM has been so successful in earlier studies of the seasonal cycle and even in various paleoclimate scenarios compared to data and GCMs. This research will study the underlying mechanisms of climate variability and change using simple models. The PI will systematically examine the fluxes and related meteorological fields in order to clarify the reasons for the apparant linearity of climate fluctuation and response phenomena. This research is important because it may give insight into how the climate system works - a pre-requisite for more credible predictions of future climates.