Models of Warning Systems for Natural Hazards

将制定一种方法， 综合定量数学 突发事件预警系统模拟 自然灾害 这一方法将 包括所有决定 全面预警系统的性能： 地球物理的，技术的，组织的， 行为和经济因素。 接下来， 预警系统的数学模型将 针对两种类型的危害进行开发： 洪水和河流洪水。 的目的 这些模型将提供一个科学的 工程基础与分析方法 设计、操作、性能评估， 预警系统的效益-成本分析。 模型的工程实用性将是 通过代表性应用程序进行测试。

A methodology will be developed for comprehensive and quantitative mathematical simulation of warning systems for rapid-onset natural hazards. The methodology will encompass all major factors that determine the performance of a total warning system: geophysical, technological, organizational, behavioral, and economic factors. Next, mathematical models of warning systems will be developed for two types of hazards: flash floods and riverine floods. The purpose of the models will be to provide a scientific basis and analytic means for engineering design, operation, evaluation of performance, and benefit-cost analyses of warning systems. Engineering usefulness of the models will be tested through representative applications.