Research to Obtain a Long, Continuous and Reasonably Accurate Record of Southern Oscillation-Related Climatic Activity Extending at Least Back to A.D. 622

厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是地球上气候变化的最好例子，这种变化是由气候系统的内部反馈产生的。它具有2-6年的准周期振荡，也是一种具有重要人类影响的气候变化。从直接观察到的过去50到100年，以及从历史和其他书面轶事证据来看，过去500年来，ENSO的历史被很好地记录下来。重要的是要了解这种内部反馈可能如何影响未来的气候变化。为了实现这一点，有必要将ENSO气候变化的记录追溯到过去，以了解该系统如何对不同的气候状态做出反应。这项提议将导致ENSO的记录可以追溯到大约公元622年。它将基于在埃及开罗测量的尼罗河流量记录。这项研究很重要，因为它将直接观察自然气候在年度和十年时间尺度上的变化。这些结果将有助于理解地球如何应对短期的内部扰动，以及这些反应可能如何受到气候变化的影响。

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the best example of a climate variation on earth that is produced by an internal feedback in the climate system. With a quasi-periodic oscillation of 2-6 years, it is also a climate variation that has important human impacts. The history of ENSO is well documented for about the last 50 to 100 years from direct observation and the last 500 years from historical and other written anecdotal evidence. It is important to understand how this internal feedback may affect future climate change. In order to accomplish this, it will be necessary to extend the record of ENSO climate change back in time to understand how the system responds to varying climatic states. This proposal will result in a record of ENSO dating back to about 622 AD. It will be based on the record of Nile River discharge measured at Cairo, Egypt. This research is important because it will provide direct observation of natural climate variations on annual and decadal time scales. The results will be most useful for understanding how the earth responds to short-term internal perturbations and how these responses might be affected by climate change.