Collaborative Research: Rational Expectations and Learning: An Experimental Analysis

协作研究：理性预期和学习：实验分析

• 批准号: 9110901
• 负责人: Raymond Battalio
• 金额: $ 5.84万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-01 至 1993-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9110901&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Rational; Expectations; Learning

The purpose of this project is to analyze the effects on market prices and market efficiency of learning on the part of individuals participating in that market. There is good evidence that suppliers and demanders eventually learn enough about the market to form rational expectations about the market they participant in, in the sense that they do not persist in making predictable errors that reduces market efficiency. The way in which market participants learn about a market can affect its efficiency; first by affecting how quickly participants learn about the market, and second by affecting equilibrium prices and quantities. An important part of learning about a market is learning about other suppliers and demanders in the market. This project will analyze learning by the use of experimental markets in which suppliers determine output before any trades occur. This production before sale situation mimics agricultural markets as well as many other markets in which supplies' forecasts of market prices have an important effect on market prices. The most precise learning models are the statistically-based models of Bayesian learning and regression learning. In this study the implications of both types of learning are examined. This research is important because it will give us a better understanding of how learning affects the efficient functioning of markets.

本项目的目的是分析参与该市场的个人学习对市场价格和市场效率的影响。有很好的证据表明，供应商和需求者最终会对市场有足够的了解，从而形成对他们参与的市场的理性预期，因为他们不会坚持犯下降低市场效率的可预测错误。市场参与者了解市场的方式可以影响市场的效率；第一，通过影响参与者了解市场的速度，第二，通过影响均衡价格和数量。了解市场的一个重要部分是了解市场上的其他供应商和需求者。这个项目将通过使用实验市场来分析学习，在实验市场中，供应商在任何交易发生之前确定产量。这种先生产后销售的情况类似于农产品市场以及许多其他市场，在这些市场中，供应品对市场价格的预测对市场价格具有重要影响。最精确的学习模型是基于统计的贝叶斯学习模型和回归学习模型。在这项研究中，我们考察了这两种学习方式的含义。这项研究很重要，因为它将让我们更好地理解学习如何影响市场的有效运作。