Macroeconomics Complementaries

本项目继续研究模型的动力学行为 经济互补。 这些模型的关键在于 一种物质的“活性”是一种 经济活动的总体水平。 例如以这样 由个体公司生产模型或由 失业人员就业取决于经济的总体水平 活动 这些模型已经能够提供对一个 对理解商业周期很重要的各种现象， 增长和金融互动。 的多重性 在这些模型中出现的均衡， 协调失败，因为经济可能会“卡住”， 一个劣均衡 没有一个单独行动的特工 使经济达到一个理想的均衡结果。 这是 与观察到的长期低活动一致，例如 经济大萧条时期， 转移到另一种低活性平衡。 这项补助金允许研究人员扩展过去的理论 和实证工作，重点放在机器更换和变化， 汽车生产的季节性模式和相关的 在20世纪20年代和30年代的部门。 最有趣的方面 汽车制造商在这一时期的经验是一个 罗斯福政府和汽车工业的努力 制造商协会，在20世纪30年代初， 从年底到年底， 夏末。 这可能是协调失败的一个例子。 汽车生产商都在12月同步重组， 今年早些时候重新装备可以提高产量 平滑 该项目还将研究进入的重要性 在商业周期中， 竞争性经济。 最后一个工作领域涉及研究 银行挤兑的总体影响， 设计最优存款保险方案。

This project continues research on the dynamic behavior of model economies with complementarities. The key to these models is that the "activity" of one agent is an increasing function of the aggregate level of activity in the economy. For example, in such models production by individual firms or search for jobs by the unemployed for jobs depends on the overall level of economic activity. These models have been able to provide insights into a variety of phenomena important to understanding business cycles, growth and financial interactions. The multiplicity of equilibria that arise in these models creates the possibility of coordination failures in that the economy can become "stuck" at an inferior equilibrium. No single agent, acting alone, can move the economy to a preferred equilibrium outcome. This is consistent with observed, prolonged periods of low activity, such as the Great Depression, where it appears that the economy shifted to an alternative low activity equilibrium. This grant permits the investigator to extend past theoretical and empirical work to focus on machine replacement and changes in the seasonal pattern of production in the automobile and related sectors during the 1920s and 1930s. The most interesting aspect of the automobile producers experience during this period was an effort by the Roosevelt Administration and the Automobile Manufacturers Association, in the early 1930s to move the shutdown period for retooling from the end of the year to the late summer. This could be an example of a coordination failure. Automobile producers all synchronized retooling in December, but retooling earlier in the year would permit greater production smoothing. The project will also study the importance of entry and exit over the course of business cycles in imperfectly competitive economies. The last area of work concerns the study of the aggregate implications of bank runs and the problem of designing optimal deposit insurance schemes.