Interindustry Complementaries and the Business Cycle

9320935谢伊这项研究将以商业周期频率调查不同行业的收入来源。关于美国商业周期的一个重要事实是，不同的行业往往会同时经历扩张和收缩。大多数行业在繁荣时期同时表现良好；相反，大多数行业在衰退期间同时表现不佳。对于这种行业间的转变，有两种可能的解释。一种解释是不同的行业往往会经历类似的冲击。第二种解释是不同的行业之间存在联系或互补。这项研究试图确定哪些类型的互补性(如果有的话)是战后美国产业间变动的重要来源。研究中采用的策略是将各种关联模型的预测与战后美国126个制造业之间的就业和产出共同变动的实际模式进行比较。这项研究的结果将有助于揭示冲击在经济各部门之间传播的渠道，并进一步了解商业周期的原因。***

9320935 Shea This research will investigate the source of comovements across various industries at business cycle frequencies. The important fact about business cycles in the United States is that different industries tend to experience expansions and contractions at the same time. Most industries do well simultaneously during a boom; conversely, most industries do poorly simultaneously during a recession. There are two potential explanations for such interindustry comovements. One explanation is that different industries tend to experience similar shocks.The second explanation is the existence of linkages or complementarities connecting different industries to each other. This research seeks to determine which types of complementarity, if any have been important sources of interindustry comovements in the postwar United States.The strategy adopted in the study is to compare the predictions of various linkage models to the actual pattern of employment and output comovement among one hundred and twenty six US manufacturing industries during the postwar period. The results from this study will help reveal the channels by which shocks are transmitted across sectors of the economy, and further our understanding of the causes of business cycles. ***