Collaborative Research on Persistence and Change in the Belief Systems of American Opinion Leaders: A Test of Competing Theories

将过去四年的事件描述为创造了一个几乎无与伦比的历史转折点，已经成为一种陈词滥调。东欧国家被自己的公民解放、苏联解体、波斯湾战争以及欧洲共同体新兴的经济联盟改变了冷战时期的国际体系。但目前还不清楚美国将如何应对新时代的挑战、限制和机遇；退回到新孤立主义，或在创建和维持应对广泛国际问题的机构和制度方面发挥领导作用，只是众多可能性中的两种。无论美国做出什么选择，都将对冷战后的世界秩序产生重大影响。这些选择将受到许多因素的影响，包括美国舆论领袖的政治信仰。这个项目试图获得可靠和系统的证据，说明美国舆论领袖的国内外政策信念，这些领袖代表着广泛的机构，包括公司、工会、政府、媒体、军队、教堂、大学等。为此，该项目将对大约4000名舆论领袖进行邮件调查，这些领导人的名字来自美国名人录、美国女性名人录。和类似的目录。这项调查将于1992年春季进行，这将是调查人员对美国舆论领袖进行的一系列研究中的第五项。在1976年、1980年、1984年和1988年进行的每一次调查都得到了2000多名舆论领袖的回复。这一独特的数据提供了一个强大的基线，可以用来衡量1988年以来的戏剧性事件对美国人的政治态度和信仰的影响，这些美国人处于有利地位，可以在有关美国在20世纪90年代及以后扮演适当国际角色的公开对话中发挥有影响力的作用。1992年的调查结果将提供给整个社会科学界，对于对美国外交政策感兴趣的学生来说，这将是一个宝贵的来源。

It has become a cliche to describe events of the past four years as having created a historical turning point of virtually unparalleled proportions. The liberation of Eastern European nations by its own citizens, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Persian Gulf War, and the emerging economic union of the European Community have transformed the Cold War international system. But it is much less clear how the United States will react to the challenges, constraints, and opportunities of the new era; a retreat to neo-isolationism or a leadership role in creating and sustaining institutions and regimes for coping with a wide array of international issues are only two of the many possibilities. Whatever choices the United States makes will have a significant impact on the post-Cold War world order. These choices will be influenced by many factors, including the political beliefs of American opinion leaders. This project seeks to gain reliable and systematic evidence about the domestic and foreign policy beliefs of American opinion leaders representing a wide range of institutions, including corporations, labor unions, government, the media, the military, churches, universities, etc. To do so the project will conduct a mail survey of approximately 4,000 opinion leaders whose names have been drawn from Who's Who In America, Who's Who of American Women, and similar directories. The survey, to be conducted in the spring of 1992, will be the fifth in a series of studies of American opinion leaders undertaken by the investigators. Each of the previous surveys, undertaken in 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988, yielded responses from over 2,000 opinion leaders. This unique body of data provides a strong baseline from which to measure the impact of the dramatic events since 1988 on the political attitudes and beliefs of Americans who are well positioned to play an influential role in the public dialogue about the appropriate international role for the United States in the 1990s and beyond. The results of the 1992 survey will be made avaliable to the entire social science community and will be an invaluable source for interested students of American foreign policy.