Collaborative Research on American Leadership in a Turbulent World

9514921 Holsti这个项目是一个长期合作项目的第六阶段，将抓住冷战结束以来改变世界政治的戏剧性发展所提供的机会。其目的是促进对美国如何应对和适应一个不再以冷战结束的欢欣为标志的世界的动态的理解。虽然外交政策领导力项目（FPLP）的第六阶段部分目的是评估早期研究结果的稳定性，但其主要目的是探索美国领导人的信念体系是如何受到世界事务持续混乱和建立在多边原则基础上的新全球秩序前景日益渺茫的影响的。对美国领导层的早期研究发现，a)越战前的外交政策共识已经被几个内部一致的、基本上相互排斥的、持久的信仰体系所取代；B)面对无数的挑战，这些尖锐的裂痕在很大程度上没有被弥合；C)领导人的外交政策和国内政策信仰体系之间存在明显的意识形态和党派差异；d)尽管如此，某些问题，特别是涉及以色列和贸易的问题，与总体调查结果相比显得异常。使用与早期研究相同的调查方法，本项目应用并测试了一种政治适应理论，旨在解释1)由于联合国最近的失败、与俄罗斯紧张关系的加剧、车臣冲突的爆发以及与日本贸易紧张局势的出现等开创性事件而导致的领导信仰体系发生的任何重大变化；2)苏联解体前几十年形成的长期思维习惯如何受到冷战结束的影响；(3)由于国外的失望以及国内的恐怖主义和围绕该国社会和经济议程的紧张局势日益加剧，单边主义和孤立主义倾向在多大程度上得到了助长；4)面对世界和国家政治的变化而保持稳定的各种信仰体系的维度；5)国内外的变革可能导致美国领导层内部趋向于更广泛的共识或更深刻的分裂。这是一个数据资源，将被对该主题感兴趣的学者广泛使用。＊＊＊

9514921 Holsti This project, the sixth phase of a long-term collaborative project, will seize the opportunity offered by the dramatic developments that have transformed world politics in the years since the end of the Cold War. The purpose is to advance understanding of the dynamics whereby the United States responds and adapts to a world that is no longer marked by the euphoria of the Cold War's end. While Phase VI of the Foreign Policy Leadership Project (FPLP) is partially designed to assess the stability of earlier findings, its primary intent is to explore how the belief systems of American leaders have been affected by the continuing disarray of world affairs and the diminishing prospects for a new global order founded on multilateral principles. The earlier studies of the American leadership community found that a) a pre-Vietnam foreign policy consensus had been replaced by several internally consistent, largely mutually exclusive and durable belief systems; b) for the most part these sharp cleavages were not bridged in the face of numerous challenges; c) discernible ideological and partisan differences prevail between the foreign and domestic policy belief systems of leaders; and, d) nonetheless certain issues, notably those involving Israel and trade, stand out as anomalous with respect to the overall findings. Using the same survey methods employed in the earlier research, this project applies and tests a theory of political adaptation designed to account for 1) any major changes that have occurred in leadership belief systems as a result of such seminal events as the recent failures of the United Nations, the intensification of tensions with Russia, the outbreak of conflict in Chechnya, and the advent of tensions over trade with Japan; 2) how the long-standing habits of thought developed during the decades prior to the collapse of the USSR have been affected by the end of the Cold War; 3) the degree to which unilateralist and isolationist tendencies have been fostered by dis appointments abroad as well as domestic terrorism and mounting tensions over the country's social and economic agenda; 4) those dimensions of the various belief systems that have remained stable in the face of changes in world and national politics; and, 5) the ways in which the transformations at home and abroad may have induced tendencies toward a more widespread consensus or toward ever deeper cleavages within the American leadership community. This is a data resource that will be used widely by scholars interested in the topic. ***