Analysis of Military Applicants' Social Security Earnings Records

削减25%军事人员的计划已经 激发了公众对社会代表性的兴趣， 美国军队和志愿军的影响 服务于平民劳动力市场的结果。 军队是 年轻人和退伍军人福利的最大单一雇主 是联邦对教育和培训的最大补贴。 该项目的目的是分析军事影响 退伍军人退伍后的收入服务。 争论的焦点是，平均而言， 对平民的成功有积极或消极的影响 劳动力市场 1949年军队入学考试评分中的错误 20世纪70年代末，能力较低的申请人 会被接受。 这种外生的接受转变 概率提供了一个自然的实验，可以用来 估计志愿兵役对平民的影响 劳动力市场的结果。 军事进入的影响 军队社会构成标准也将 被分析。 经验策略是， 申请军事档案的军事人员的行政记录 最后是纵向社会保障收入 记录 匹配的数据集将由一个长面板组成 包含收入、考试成绩、退伍军人身份、 和人口特征。 半参数估计将 为估计服兵役的影响， 非线性模型，具有未观察到的个体效应。

Plans to reduce the number of military personnel by 25% have stimulated public interest in the social representativeness for the U.S. military and in the effects of voluntary military service on civilian labor market outcomes. The military is the largest single employer of young people and veterans benefits constitute the largest federal subsidy to education and training. The purpose of this project is to analyze the impact of military service on the earnings of veterans after leaving the military. What is at issue is whether or not military service, on average, has a positive or negative effect on success in the civilian labor market. Errors in the scoring of military entrance examinations in the late 1970's increased the probability that low ability applicants would be accepted. This exogenous shift in acceptance probabilities provides a natural experiment that can be used to estimate the effects of voluntary, military service on civilian labor-market outcomes. The effects of military entrance standards on the social composition of the armed forces will also be analyzed. The empirical strategy is to match armed forces administrative records on military applicants to military records on entrants, and finally to longitudinal social-security earnings records. The matched data set will consist of a long panel containing information on earnings, test scores, veteran status, and demographic characteristics. Semi-parametric estimators will be developed for estimating the effects of military service in nonlinear models with unobserved individual effects.