Analysis of Military Applicants' Social Security Earnings Records

将军事人员数量减少25%的计划激发了公众对美国军队的社会代表性以及志愿兵役对民用劳动力市场结果的影响的兴趣。军队是年轻人的最大雇主，退伍军人的福利构成了对教育和培训的最大联邦补贴。本项目的目的是分析服兵役对退伍军人退役后收入的影响。争论的焦点是服兵役对在民用劳动力市场取得成功的平均影响是积极的还是消极的。20世纪70年代末，军队入学考试的分数错误增加了低能力申请者被录取的可能性。这种接受概率的外生变化提供了一个自然的实验，可以用来估计志愿兵役对平民劳动力市场结果的影响。此外，还将分析入伍标准对军队社会构成的影响。实证策略是将应征入伍者的军队行政记录与进入者的军事记录相匹配，最后与纵向社会保障收入记录相匹配。匹配的数据集将由一个长面板组成，其中包含收入、考试成绩、退伍军人身份和人口特征等信息。半参数估计器将用于估计具有未观察到的个体效应的非线性模型中的军事服务的影响。

Plans to reduce the number of military personnel by 25% have stimulated public interest in the social representativeness for the U.S. military and in the effects of voluntary military service on civilian labor market outcomes. The military is the largest single employer of young people and veterans benefits constitute the largest federal subsidy to education and training. The purpose of this project is to analyze the impact of military service on the earnings of veterans after leaving the military. What is at issue is whether or not military service, on average, has a positive or negative effect on success in the civilian labor market. Errors in the scoring of military entrance examinations in the late 1970's increased the probability that low ability applicants would be accepted. This exogenous shift in acceptance probabilities provides a natural experiment that can be used to estimate the effects of voluntary, military service on civilian labor-market outcomes. The effects of military entrance standards on the social composition of the armed forces will also be analyzed. The empirical strategy is to match armed forces administrative records on military applicants to military records on entrants, and finally to longitudinal social-security earnings records. The matched data set will consist of a long panel containing information on earnings, test scores, veteran status, and demographic characteristics. Semi-parametric estimators will be developed for estimating the effects of military service in nonlinear models with unobserved individual effects.