Analysis of Military Applicants' Social Security Earnings Records

削减25%军事人员的计划激发了公众对美国军队的社会代表性以及志愿兵役对平民劳动力市场结果的影响的兴趣。军队是年轻人最大的单一雇主，退伍军人福利构成了联邦政府对教育和培训的最大补贴。本项目旨在分析服兵役对退伍军人退伍后收入的影响。问题是，平均而言，服兵役对平民劳动力市场的成功是有积极的还是消极的影响。上世纪70年代末，S在军考成绩上的失误增加了低能力申请者被录取的可能性。接受概率的这种外生转变提供了一个自然的实验，可以用来估计自愿服兵役对平民劳动力市场结果的影响。还将分析军事准入标准对军队社会构成的影响。经验策略是将军队申请者的军队管理记录与参赛者的军事记录相匹配，最后与社会保障收入纵向记录相匹配。匹配的数据集将由一个长长的面板组成，其中包含有关收入、考试成绩、退伍军人身份和人口统计特征的信息。在具有不可观测的个体效应的非线性模型中，将开发半参数估计器来估计兵役效应。

Plans to reduce the number of military personnel by 25% have stimulated public interest in the social representativeness for the U.S. military and in the effects of voluntary military service on civilian labor market outcomes. The military is the largest single employer of young people and veterans benefits constitute the largest federal subsidy to education and training. The purpose of this project is to analyze the impact of military service on the earnings of veterans after leaving the military. What is at issue is whether or not military service, on average, has a positive or negative effect on success in the civilian labor market. Errors in the scoring of military entrance examinations in the late 1970's increased the probability that low ability applicants would be accepted. This exogenous shift in acceptance probabilities provides a natural experiment that can be used to estimate the effects of voluntary, military service on civilian labor-market outcomes. The effects of military entrance standards on the social composition of the armed forces will also be analyzed. The empirical strategy is to match armed forces administrative records on military applicants to military records on entrants, and finally to longitudinal social-security earnings records. The matched data set will consist of a long panel containing information on earnings, test scores, veteran status, and demographic characteristics. Semi-parametric estimators will be developed for estimating the effects of military service in nonlinear models with unobserved individual effects.