New Instrumental-Variables Estimates of the Effects of Schooling and Military Service: Empirical Strategies Using Non-Public-Use Data

学校教育和兵役影响的新工具变量估计：使用非公共数据的实证策略

• 批准号: 0518816
• 负责人: Joshua Angrist
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-06-01 至 2011-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0518816&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: New; Instrumental; Variables; Estimates; Effects

This proposal outlines four projects that rely on non-public use data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses. The first three projects involve record linkage with other data sources. All work is to be carried in the Census Bureau's Boston and Michigan Research Data Centers (RDCs). The purpose of these projects is to use instrumental variables (IV) methods to estimate four sets of causal effects:(1) The effect of schooling on labor force participation and disability status; (2) The effect of maternal education on fertility; (3) The effect of schooling on wage inequality; and (4) Long-term effects of Vietnam-era veteran status on a variety of outcomes, including earnings, labor force participation, and disability status. The veteran status project uses draft lottery numbers; the schooling projects use quarter-of-birth instruments and college proximity instruments. Quarter-of-birth instruments are available in recent Census files because of the presence of exact date-of-birth on the non-public use file for the 2000 Census and year of birth on internal files for the 1990 Census. Birthday information can therefore be used to construct indicators of quarter of birth and draft lottery eligibility status in 2000, and a first-quarter dummy in 1990. The project also plans to link the 1990 and 2000 Census files, thereby generating more detailed birthday information for the 1990 respondents who are observed in 2000 and allowing the investigators to create college-proximity instruments for the 2000 respondents who are observed in 1990. Finally, part of this agenda involves a strategy for birthday-based imputation of a 1980-style highest grade completed (HGC) variable for the 1990 and 2000 Censuses since the public use files include only categorical degree receipt. The imputation exploits an existing non-public-use link of the 1991 CPS to birthday information from the Social Security Administration. The 1991 CPS is especially useful because it can be used to produce a file (by linking rotation groups) that contains both HGC and categorical schooling variables.The causal effect of schooling on average wages is one of the most important questions in labor economics. At the same time, interest is growing in other effects of schooling, including effects on labor force participation, health, and features of the wage distribution beyond average earnings. For example, a number of researchers have tried to establish a causal link between education and longevity. This project uses quasi-experimental variation to look at the effects of education on the labor force participation and disability status of older Americans in the 2000 Census, which includes 6 disability measures, 5 of which are new. A second application focuses on the effects of education on fertility. A provocative recent finding is that there is no relation between quarter-of-birth and fertility timing, suggesting that schooling has no effect on fertility either. However, these estimates rely on non-random samples and data from only two states. This project augments this investigation using random samples for all states from the 2000 and earlier Censuses. A third application explores sharp changes in the link between education and income inequality since 1990. Descriptive analysis shows that higher education is associated with much more inequality in 2000 than 1990. The investigators plan to use semi-parametric and IV methods to determine whether this link is causal. Finally, the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have renewed interest in the social and economic consequences of military service. The investigators plan to use draft lottery numbers to provide credible estimates of the labor force participation and disability effects of Vietnam-era service on men now in their fifties.Broader Impacts: This project will provide improved and intertemporally comparable schooling variables that can be used when working with 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census microdata. It will add Year of Birth to the internal RDC version of the 1990 Census. It will develop a linked version of the 1990 and 2000 Census microdata files. This file should prove useful to any researcher interested in longitudinal research with large samples, or who would like to combine variables across these important data sets.

该提案概述了依赖1990年和2000年人口普查非公开使用数据的四个项目。前三个项目涉及与其他数据源的记录链接。所有工作都将在人口普查局的波士顿和密歇根研究数据中心（RDC）进行。这些项目的目的是使用工具变量（IV）方法来估计四组因果效应：（1）学校教育对劳动力参与和残疾状况的影响;（2）母亲教育对生育率的影响;（3）学校教育对工资不平等的影响;以及（4） 越战老兵地位对各种结果的长期影响，包括收入，劳动力参与和残疾状况。退伍军人身份项目使用抽签号码;学校教育项目使用出生四分之一仪器和大学接近仪器。 最近的人口普查档案中有出生季度的资料，因为2000年人口普查的非公开使用档案中有确切的出生日期，1990年人口普查的内部档案中有确切的出生年份。因此，2000年，生日信息可用于构建出生季度和抽签资格状况指标，1990年可用于构建第一季度虚拟指标。 该项目还计划将1990年和2000年的人口普查档案联系起来，从而为2000年观察到的1990年答卷人提供更详细的生日信息，并使调查人员能够为1990年观察到的2 000名答卷人制作大学邻近度工具。最后，这一议程的一部分涉及一个战略，为1990年和2000年人口普查的1980年风格的最高等级完成（HGC）变量的生日为基础的插补，因为公共使用的文件只包括分类学位接收。这项估算利用了1991年CPS与社会保障局生日信息之间现有的非公共使用链接。1991年的CPS特别有用，因为它可以用来生成一个包含HGC和分类教育变量的文件（通过链接轮换组）。教育对平均工资的因果影响是劳动经济学中最重要的问题之一。与此同时，人们对教育的其他影响也越来越感兴趣，包括对劳动力参与、健康和平均收入以外的工资分配特征的影响。例如，一些研究人员试图在教育和寿命之间建立因果关系。该项目使用准实验变异来研究教育对2000年人口普查中美国老年人劳动力参与和残疾状况的影响，其中包括6项残疾措施，其中5项是新的。第二项应用侧重于教育对生育率的影响。最近一项颇具争议的发现是，出生的四分之一和生育时间之间没有关系，这表明学校教育对生育率也没有影响。然而，这些估计依赖于非随机样本和仅来自两个州的数据。该项目利用2000年和更早的人口普查中所有州的随机样本加强了这一调查。第三个应用程序探讨了自1990年以来教育与收入不平等之间联系的急剧变化。描述性分析表明，2000年高等教育与不平等的关系比1990年大得多。研究人员计划使用半参数和IV方法来确定这种联系是否是因果关系。最后，阿富汗和伊拉克的冲突使人们重新关注服兵役的社会和经济后果。调查人员计划使用草案彩票号码，以提供可靠的估计劳动力参与和残疾的影响，越南时代的服务对男性现在在their50.Broader的影响：这个项目将提供改进和跨时间可比的教育变量，可以使用时，与1980年，1990年和2000年人口普查微观数据。它将在1990年人口普查的区域发展委员会内部版本中增加出生年份。它将编制1990年和2000年人口普查微观数据档案的链接版本。这个文件应该证明是有用的任何研究人员有兴趣在纵向研究与大样本，或谁愿意结合联合收割机变量在这些重要的数据集。