MAB: Agronomic and Economic Analysis of Progressive Green- house Warming: Impacts on Grain Yields, Cropping Patterns, and Farm Profitability

MAB：温室渐进变暖的农艺和经济分析：对粮食产量、种植模式和农场盈利能力的影响

• 批准号: 9123883
• 负责人: Daniel Wilks
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Cornell Univ - State: AWDS MADE PRIOR MAY 2010
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-01-01 至 1994-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9123883&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: MAB; Agronomic; Economic; Analysis; Progressive

Agricultural ecosystems are key elements of the life support systems of all developed societies. These systems are so dominated by human factors that a reasonable understanding of their responses to large-scale changes in the physical environment necessarily requires consideration of economic influences on human decision making, which modulate the biophysical aspects of agricultural production. The economics, in turn, are critically influenced by the biological responses to the physical environment, which determine yield potential and commodity supplies. A credible treatment of these interactions requires integration of physical, biological and social science approaches and tools. This research project will jointly assess the predicted economic and agricultural impacts of evolving climate changes caused by gradually increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. A recently developed methodology, which focuses on the response of farm-level decisions to changes in the physical environment, will form the basis of the study. The project will consider the major grain crops of North America, for which reasonably comprehensive agronomic, climatological and economic data are available. The proposed research will contribute to the scientific understanding of interactions between human and biophysical determinants of food production and prices in the context of a changing climate. It will track the effects of gradual climate changes through a set of physiological crop models to a sequential linear programming model of farm-level decision making, and is thus truly interdisciplinary in nature. The results will provide tools which can contribute usefully to informed decisions regarding the consequences of both energy and agricultural policy on landscape patterns, food production and prices.

农业生态系统是所有发达社会生命支持系统的关键要素。这些系统受人为因素的支配，要合理理解它们对自然环境大规模变化的反应，就必须考虑经济对人类决策的影响，因为经济影响调节着农业生产的生物物理方面。经济反过来又受到对自然环境的生物反应的严重影响，而自然环境决定了产量潜力和商品供应。对这些相互作用的可靠处理需要综合使用物理、生物和社会科学的方法和工具。该研究项目将共同评估由温室气体浓度逐渐增加引起的气候变化对经济和农业的预测影响。最近发展的一种侧重于农场一级的决定对自然环境变化的反应的方法将成为这项研究的基础。该项目将考虑北美的主要粮食作物，这些作物有相当全面的农艺、气候和经济数据。拟议的研究将有助于科学地了解在气候变化的背景下粮食生产和价格的人类和生物物理决定因素之间的相互作用。它将通过一组生理作物模型来跟踪逐渐的气候变化的影响，并将其转化为农场层面决策的顺序线性规划模型，因此在本质上是真正的跨学科。研究结果将提供工具，有助于就能源和农业政策对景观格局、粮食生产和价格的影响作出明智的决定。