A Technique for Incorporating Uncertain Environmental Factors into the Utility Planning Process

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The proposed research effort attempts to develop a technique to model and study the effects of uncertain environmental factors in the electric utility planning process. The electric utility deals with uncertainties with respect to the availability and costs of alternative generation, fuels, and new emission reduction technologies. There are also uncertainties in demand an energy projections, and the impact of demand side management programs. Emissions caps and emissions trading features provide for by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 have added a new dimension to the problem of uncertainty. There are wide variations in estimates on the market price of emission allowances. At the same time experts disagree on the extent to which government legislation and regulations should and will be used to limit emissions. In the light of those uncertainties, the utility planner must explore a variety of probable scenarios in order to settle on a robust generation plan. The evaluation tools which are currently being applied assume the availability of the measures of uncertainty and of experts furnishing them. This is obviously not always the case. The proposed technique is designed to facilitate the strategic power system planning under uncertainty by generating probability estimates for expert opinions using the interdependent data analysis (IDA) technique being developed at Virginia Tech. This enables the decision maker to model opinions which are still forming. Applied with decision tree/influence diagram analysis, this can result in a robust methodology to quantify uncertainties related to environmental factors in the utility planning process.