Household Credit, Default Consequences, and Consumption in the 1930s: The Importance of Institutional Characteristics

1930年，消费下降的速度比收入下降的速度更快 衰退，把严重的衰退变成了大萧条。 然而 尽管其重要性，但这一下降仍然无法解释。 这 项目提供了一个解释。 1929年，家庭债务达到了前所未有的高度。 其中大部分是分期付款债务。 拖欠分期付款 合同导致财富减少收回， 赔偿 尽管分期付款高达30%， 当收入下降时， 1930. 该项目表明，消费量的不明原因下降 是家庭避免违约的手段：当家庭 预期的工资削减，他们立即减少消费， 可以偿还债务，避免代价高昂的违约。 项目 说明了制度特征的重要性。 违约后果的后续变化降低了敏感性 当前收入波动的影响。 本项目对现有的两项住户调查进行分析 收入和支出的编码和分析 1928年和1933年对同一家庭的调查; 对1930年代工资削减模式的分析; 分析制约违约后果的法律的环境， 违约的程度，耐用品的价格，以及 担保和证券化做法对 贷款人调整现有信贷条件的能力。

In 1930, consumption fell more rapidly than is explained by income declines, turning a bad recession into the Great Depression. Yet despite its importance, this drop remains unexplained. This project offers an explanation. Household indebtedness stood at an unprecedented high in 1929. Much of this was installment debt. Default on an installment contract resulted in wealth-reducing repossession without compensation. Although installment payments were up to 30 percent of monthly pay, households did not default when income fell in 1930. This project suggests the unexplained drop in consumption was the means by which households avoided default: when households anticipated wage cuts, they immediately reduced consumption so they could pay off their debts and avoid costly default. The project illustrates the importance of institutional characteristics. Subsequent change in default consequences lessened the sensitivity of consumption to current income fluctuations. This project pursues the analysis of two existing household surveys of income and expenditure; coding and analysis of a household survey covering the years 1928 and 1933 for the same families; analysis of the pattern of wage cuts in the 1930s; and historical analysis of the legal environment governing default consequences, the extent of default, the prices of used durable goods, and the impact of the practices of collateralization and securitization on a lender's ability to adjust existing credit terms.