VPW: Unofficial Markets for Foreign Currency & Goods in theFormer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (Economics)

VPW：非官方外币市场

• 批准号: 9250102
• 负责人: Linda Goldberg
• 金额: $ 13.49万
• 依托单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-08-01 至 1994-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9250102&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: VPW; Unofficial; Markets; Foreign; Currency

This research focuses on the black markets for foreign currency and goods in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Parallel markets in goods and currency are influenced by developments in the official and unofficial markets for foreign- currency trade and by economic-reform initiatives. The objective of the research is to trace, both theoretically and empirically, the implications of anticipated and unanticipated policy reforms for hoarding of consumption goods, inflation, the black-market exchange rate, and black-market trade volumes in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The methodological approach is drawn from the theory of exchange-rate determination, with the portfolio theory of asset demands and exchange-rate determination agumented to show that when there are shortages in goods markets and individuals tend to hoard goods as a form of investment, with black-market exchange rates biased predictors of the post-reform equilibrium exchange rates. Announcements of reform can lead short-run exchange rates to overshoot or undershoot (depending on the announcement) long-run equilibrium levels. The empirical work will examine black-market exchange rates (buy and sell rates) between the rouble and the dollar, as drawn from bi-weekly sampling of Moscow black-market currency dealers. The determinants of black-market exchange- rate movements will be identified empirically, as will be the determinants of the spread between the bid and ask prices in this market. If appropriate data is available, black-market prices for goods also will be studied. Exchange rate and price data for the Baltic nations also may be examined. This research will provide insights into the distortions caused when governments use black-market rates to choose levels of official exchange rates. The project furthers VPW program objectives to provide opportunities for women to advance their careers in science or engineering through research, and to encourage other women to pursue careers in these areas through the investigator's enhanced visibility as a role model on the host campus. The proposed activities which contribute to the second objective include: teaching a course in International Finance; presenting independent research on "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Transition Economies" in departmental seminars in International Economics and Comparative Economic Studies; regularly participating in the International Economics seminar program; and working to promote the achievement of women in economics by active involvement with female graduate students through the established support group "Women in Economics."

这项研究的重点是外国的黑市 前苏联和东欧的货币和货物 欧洲 商品和货币的平行市场受到 官方和非官方市场的发展情况， 货币贸易和经济改革举措。 客观 研究的目的是从理论和经验上追踪 预期和未预期的政策改革对 囤积消费品、通货膨胀、黑市 汇率和黑市交易量 苏联和东欧。 方法论 是从汇率决定理论中得出的， 资产需求与汇率的组合理论 这表明，当出现短缺时， 在商品市场上，个人倾向于囤积商品， 黑市汇率的预测值存在偏差， 改革后的均衡汇率。 公告 改革可能导致短期汇率过高， 低于（取决于公告）长期 平衡水平。 实证工作将研究黑市 卢布和美元之间的汇率（买入和卖出汇率） 从莫斯科黑市的双周抽样中得出 货币交易商。 黑市交易的决定因素 利率变动将根据经验确定， 在这种情况下，买卖价格之间的价差的决定因素 市场 如果有适当的数据， 商品也将被研究。 汇率和价格数据 波罗的海国家也可能受到审查。 这项研究将提供对扭曲的见解 当政府使用黑市利率来选择 官方汇率水平。 该项目进一步推动了VPW计划的目标， 妇女在科学领域发展事业的机会， 通过研究工程，并鼓励其他妇女， 追求职业生涯在这些领域通过调查员的增强 作为东道校园的榜样。 拟议 有助于实现第二个目标的活动包括： 在国际金融课程教学;提出独立的 2000年“转轨经济中的汇率制度”研究 部门研讨会在国际经济和 比较经济研究;定期参加 国际经济学研讨会计划;并致力于 积极促进妇女在经济领域取得成就， 通过既定的方案， “妇女参与经济”支助小组。"