VPW: Unofficial Markets for Foreign Currency & Goods in theFormer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (Economics)

这项研究的重点是前苏联和东欧的外币和商品黑市。商品和货币的平行市场受到官方和非官方外汇贸易市场的发展以及经济改革举措的影响。这项研究的目的是从理论和经验上追踪预期和意外的政策改革对前苏联和东欧的消费品囤积、通货膨胀、黑市汇率和黑市贸易量的影响。方法论方法来自汇率决定理论，资产需求和汇率决定的组合理论表明，当商品市场短缺时，个人倾向于囤积商品作为一种投资形式，黑市汇率偏向于改革后均衡汇率的预测因素。宣布改革可能会导致短期汇率超过或低于长期均衡水平(取决于宣布的改革)。这项实证工作将检验卢布和美元之间的黑市汇率(买入价和卖出价)，这些汇率来自莫斯科黑市货币交易商每两周一次的抽样。黑市汇率变动的决定因素将通过经验来确定，这个市场上买卖价差的决定因素也将是如此。如果有适当的数据，还将研究商品的黑市价格。波罗的海国家的汇率和价格数据也可能受到审查。这项研究将为政府利用黑市汇率来选择官方汇率水平所造成的扭曲提供洞察力。该项目进一步推动了VPW项目的目标，为女性提供通过研究提升她们在科学或工程领域的职业生涯的机会，并通过调查员作为东道主校园榜样的提高知名度，鼓励其他女性在这些领域追求职业生涯。为第二个目标作出贡献的拟议活动包括：教授国际金融课程；在国际经济学和比较经济研究部门研讨会上介绍关于“转型经济体汇率制度”的独立研究；定期参加国际经济学研讨会方案；并通过建立的支持小组“经济学中的女性”，积极参与女性研究生的活动，努力促进女性在经济学领域的成就。

This research focuses on the black markets for foreign currency and goods in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Parallel markets in goods and currency are influenced by developments in the official and unofficial markets for foreign- currency trade and by economic-reform initiatives. The objective of the research is to trace, both theoretically and empirically, the implications of anticipated and unanticipated policy reforms for hoarding of consumption goods, inflation, the black-market exchange rate, and black-market trade volumes in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The methodological approach is drawn from the theory of exchange-rate determination, with the portfolio theory of asset demands and exchange-rate determination agumented to show that when there are shortages in goods markets and individuals tend to hoard goods as a form of investment, with black-market exchange rates biased predictors of the post-reform equilibrium exchange rates. Announcements of reform can lead short-run exchange rates to overshoot or undershoot (depending on the announcement) long-run equilibrium levels. The empirical work will examine black-market exchange rates (buy and sell rates) between the rouble and the dollar, as drawn from bi-weekly sampling of Moscow black-market currency dealers. The determinants of black-market exchange- rate movements will be identified empirically, as will be the determinants of the spread between the bid and ask prices in this market. If appropriate data is available, black-market prices for goods also will be studied. Exchange rate and price data for the Baltic nations also may be examined. This research will provide insights into the distortions caused when governments use black-market rates to choose levels of official exchange rates. The project furthers VPW program objectives to provide opportunities for women to advance their careers in science or engineering through research, and to encourage other women to pursue careers in these areas through the investigator's enhanced visibility as a role model on the host campus. The proposed activities which contribute to the second objective include: teaching a course in International Finance; presenting independent research on "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Transition Economies" in departmental seminars in International Economics and Comparative Economic Studies; regularly participating in the International Economics seminar program; and working to promote the achievement of women in economics by active involvement with female graduate students through the established support group "Women in Economics."