The Affect of Altered Ocean Heat Transports on Climate: Feedback Potential During Periods of Atmospheric Trace Gas Increase

海洋热传输改变对气候的影响：大气微量气体增加期间的反馈潜力

• 批准号: 9320372
• 负责人: Mark Chandler
• 金额: $ 39.19万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-04-15 至 1998-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9320372&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Affect; Altered; Ocean; Heat; Transports

Abstract ATM-9320372 Chandler, Mark A. Martinson, David Gornitz, Vivien M. Rind, David H. Columbia University Title: The Affect of Altered Ocean Heat Transports on Climate: Feedback Potential During Periods of Atmospheric Trace Gas Increase The objective of this project is to investigate the decadal to century-scale affects of ocean heat transports in numerical climate change simulations. The project uses the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to an ocean model that includes meridional transport of heat by the oceans, to test directly whether changes in ocean heat transport could enhance or ameliorate the effects of trace-gas-induced global warming. The project is designed as a three year, two phase study: In the first phase, surface heat flux diagnostics from GCM experiments will be used to calculate the potential ocean heat transport associated with historical (20th century) anomalies in sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent. The SST and sea ice anomalies will be acquired from the most comprehensive data sets available including: COADS, Navy/NOAA, Walsh, ESMR, SMMR, and SMM/I, all of which are currently in-house. In addition, ocean heat transports will be calculated from GCM simulations and proxy data from the Little Ice Age (ca. 1700 AD) and Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 18-2lky BP) in order to obtain larger variations of heat fluxes that may be closer to the potential variability of the system. The second phase of the project focuses on simulations of the climatic effects of altered ocean heat transports in conjunction with transient trace gas increase scenarios. Ten 100- year simulations are planned in which the ocean heat values, calculated in phase one, will be used to perturb the normal pattern of climate change associated with the atmospheric trace gas increase. The simulations in phase two will take approximately two years to complete, based on estimates of the current comput ational efficiency of the GISS 4ox5o GCM running on IBM RS/6000-580 workstation. Individual transient experiments will be completed and analyzed at the rate of one every three months. The primary objective of this project is to identify patterns of climate change that are associated with variability in the air/sea/ice system and to estimate the potential ocean energy feedbacks that may accompany climate changes induced by atmospheric trace gas increase. Fingerprinting of such climate patterns will improve our ability to detect the signs of ocean-induced climate change and can improve our ability to distinguish between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change. Furthermore, it will provide us with a quantitative assessment of the oceans ability, through energy transport feedbacks, to alter the climate sensitivity and GCM predictions of future climate change. In lieu of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models, which are unlikely to reach a reliable predictive capacity in the near future, these experiments provide the realistic alternative for gauging the ability of the oceans to alter GCM future climate diagnoses. This project is funded under the USGCRP NSF Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program.

摘要ATM-9320372钱德勒，马克A。 放大图片创作者：大卫. Rind，大卫H. 哥伦比亚大学题目：海洋热传输变化对气候的影响： 大气痕量气体周期的反馈电位 增加 该项目的目标是研究海洋热输送在气候变化数值模拟中的十年至百年尺度影响。 该项目使用戈达德空间研究所的大气环流模型，再加上一个海洋模型，其中包括海洋的纬向热输送，以直接测试海洋热输送的变化是否会增强或减轻微量气体引起的全球变暖的影响。 该项目为期三年，分为两个阶段： 在第一阶段，将利用大气环流模式实验的表面热通量诊断来计算与历史（世纪）海面温度和海冰范围异常有关的潜在海洋热输送。 SST和海冰异常将从现有的最全面的数据集获得，包括：COADS、海军/NOAA、沃尔什、ESMR、SMMR和SMM/I，所有这些数据集目前都在内部。 此外，海洋热传输将根据GCM模拟和小冰河时代（约2000年）的替代数据计算。1700 AD）和末次冰期最大值（CA。18-2 lky BP），以便获得可能更接近系统的潜在可变性的热通量的更大变化。 该项目第二阶段的重点是模拟海洋热传输变化的气候影响，同时考虑到痕量气体瞬时增加的情景。 计划进行10次百年模拟，其中第一阶段计算的海洋热量值将用于干扰与大气微量气体增加有关的气候变化的正常模式。 根据对运行在IBM RS/6000-580工作站上的GISS 4 ox 5 o GCM当前计算效率的估计，第二阶段的模拟将需要大约两年的时间才能完成。 将以每三个月一次的速度完成和分析单个瞬态实验。 该项目的主要目标是确定与空气/海洋/冰系统的可变性有关的气候变化模式，并估计可能伴随大气痕量气体增加引起的气候变化的潜在海洋能量反馈。 这种气候模式的特征将提高我们发现海洋引起的气候变化迹象的能力，并可以提高我们区分自然变异和人为气候变化的能力。 此外，它还将为我们提供海洋能力的定量评估，通过能源输送反馈，改变气候敏感性和全球环流模式对未来气候变化的预测。 代替完全耦合的大气-海洋-冰模型，这是不可能达到一个可靠的预测能力，在不久的将来，这些实验提供了现实的替代测量海洋的能力，改变GCM未来的气候诊断。 该项目由USGCRP NSF气候建模，分析和预测计划资助。