Rule-Based System for Prediction and Detection of Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

Martin, James H. Rodionov, Sergei N. Colorado大学题目：基于规则的北半球气候变化预测和检测系统关于气候系统的信息通常是不精确的、不完整的、模糊的或不确定的。这些信息的重要部分以经验事实和规则的形式存在，以定性的形式表达。本研究的目的是开发一个系统，该系统可以操纵定性信息，从而提供对观测到的气候变化的理解。实现这一目标的适当方法是基于专家系统和人工智能的概念和技术。有关气候系统参数的资料将以定量和定性两种形式提出。气候变量之间的关系将表示为IF-THEN格式的生产规则。每个规则将包含一个确定性因子，该因子表示对规则有效性的信心的数值度量。将使用两种方法来组合确定性因素。第一种方法是基于邓普斯特-夏普理论，第二种方法是基于贝叶斯方案。该系统将能够评估各种气候变量（如温度、降水、大气压等）和宏观气候特征（如活动中心、急流、高层大气槽和脊等）的未来状态。它还将解释为什么得出这个结论，以及它有多确定。该系统也可被视为一种决策支持系统，对记录想法和检索必要的信息很有价值，这些信息将促进关于观测到的和预期的气候变化的讨论。在第一年，原型机的开发将集中在北大西洋。在第二年，该系统将扩展到整个北半球。该系统对气候学家和决策者都很有用。它将在渔业、农业、航海、娱乐和其他与气候相关的行业中得到不同的应用。

Abstract ATM-9320455 Martin, James H. Rodionov, Sergei N. University of Colorado Title: Rule-Based System for Prediction and Detection of Northern Hemisphere Climate Change Information regarding the climate system is often imprecise, incomplete, vague, or uncertain. A significant part of this information exists as empirical facts and rules, expressed in qualitative form. The objective of this study is to develop a system that can manipulate qualitative information is such a way as to provide understanding about observed climate changes. The appropriate method to reach this objective is based on concepts and techniques of expert systems and artificial intelligence. The information about parameters of the climate system will be presented both in quantitative and qualitative forms. Relationships between climatic variables will be expressed as production rules written in IF-THEN format. Each rule will contain a certainty factor that represents a numerical measure of the confidence one has in the validity of a rule. Two methods will be used to combine certainty factors. The first method is based on the Dempster-Sharper theory, and the second one on the Bayesian scheme. The system will be able to evaluate the future state of various climatic variables (such as temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, etc.) and of macroclimatic features (such as centers of action, jet streams, upper atmospheric troughs and ridges, etc.). It will also explain why the conclusion was reached and how certain it is. This system may also be considered as a decision support system valuable for recording ideas and retrieving necessary information that will facilitate discussions about observed and anticipated climate changes. During the first year, the prototype will be developed which will focus on the Northern Atlantic. During the second year the system will be expanded to the entire Northern Hemisphere. The system will be useful both for climatolog ists and decisionmakers. It will find different applications in fisheries, agriculture, navigation, recreation and other climate-related industries.