Rule-Based System for Prediction and Detection of Northern Hemisphere Climate Change

基于规则的北半球气候变化预测和检测系统

• 批准号: 9320455
• 负责人: James Martin
• 金额: $ 21.33万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1994
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1994-04-01 至 1997-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9320455&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Rule; Based; System; Prediction; Detection

Abstract ATM-9320455 Martin, James H. Rodionov, Sergei N. University of Colorado Title: Rule-Based System for Prediction and Detection of Northern Hemisphere Climate Change Information regarding the climate system is often imprecise, incomplete, vague, or uncertain. A significant part of this information exists as empirical facts and rules, expressed in qualitative form. The objective of this study is to develop a system that can manipulate qualitative information is such a way as to provide understanding about observed climate changes. The appropriate method to reach this objective is based on concepts and techniques of expert systems and artificial intelligence. The information about parameters of the climate system will be presented both in quantitative and qualitative forms. Relationships between climatic variables will be expressed as production rules written in IF-THEN format. Each rule will contain a certainty factor that represents a numerical measure of the confidence one has in the validity of a rule. Two methods will be used to combine certainty factors. The first method is based on the Dempster-Sharper theory, and the second one on the Bayesian scheme. The system will be able to evaluate the future state of various climatic variables (such as temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, etc.) and of macroclimatic features (such as centers of action, jet streams, upper atmospheric troughs and ridges, etc.). It will also explain why the conclusion was reached and how certain it is. This system may also be considered as a decision support system valuable for recording ideas and retrieving necessary information that will facilitate discussions about observed and anticipated climate changes. During the first year, the prototype will be developed which will focus on the Northern Atlantic. During the second year the system will be expanded to the entire Northern Hemisphere. The system will be useful both for climatolog ists and decisionmakers. It will find different applications in fisheries, agriculture, navigation, recreation and other climate-related industries.

摘要 ATM-9320455 Martin、James H. Rodionov、Sergei N. 科罗拉多大学 标题：基于规则的北半球气候变化预测和检测系统 有关气候系统的信息通常不精确、不完整、模糊或不确定。 这些信息的很大一部分以经验事实和规则的形式存在，并以定性形式表达。 这项研究的目的是开发一个可以操纵定性信息的系统，从而提供对观测到的气候变化的理解。 实现这一目标的适当方法基于专家系统和人工智能的概念和技术。 有关气候系统参数的信息将以定量和定性的形式呈现。 气候变量之间的关系将表示为以 IF-THEN 格式编写的产生式规则。 每个规则将包含一个确定性因子，表示人们对规则有效性的置信度的数值度量。 将使用两种方法来组合确定性因素。 第一种方法基于 Dempster-Sharper 理论，第二种方法基于贝叶斯方案。 该系统将能够评估各种气候变量（如温度、降水、大气压力等）和宏观气候特征（如作用中心、急流、高层大气槽和脊等）的未来状态。 它还将解释为什么得出这个结论以及它的确定性。 该系统也可以被视为一个决策支持系统，对于记录想法和检索必要的信息很有价值，这些信息将促进有关观察到的和预期的气候变化的讨论。 第一年，将开发主要针对北大西洋的原型。 第二年，该系统将扩展到整个北半球。 该系统对于气候学家和决策者都很有用。 它将在渔业、农业、航海、娱乐和其他与气候相关的行业中找到不同的应用。