Estimating Causal Models of Communal Conflict and Coercive Regime Responses Using Group-Level Data

小行星9321862 自冷战结束以来，关心人道主义危机的研究人员和官员呼吁发展预警系统，以协助规划预防性外交、人道主义援助和维持和平。 但还没有人开发或测试过可用于分析社区或其他冲突如何升级为危机和暴力的模型。 这项研究利用调查员的少数群体风险项目的结果，为这样做奠定了社会科学基础。 该项目正在开展三项需要进一步研究的高度优先任务： 1)用关于1990 - 1993年约280个政治上活跃的社区团体的新的和更精确的资料更新处境危险的少数群体数据集，其中包括前一次研究中没有包括的约50个新的活跃团体。 2)利用这些数据重新估计20世纪80年代和90年代初社区冲突的原因模型，包括国家胁迫和国际支持的新措施，以及改进的群体动员指标。 这些模型将用于对哪些群体可能卷入不断升级的冲突进行短期预测或风险评估。 3)查明族群冲突导致严重侵犯人权的条件。 这将通过以下方式实现：（1）具体说明政权对社区挑战做出强制性反应的原因模型;（2）使用15年期间三个旷日持久的冲突案例的数据对其进行测试。 ***

9321862 Gurr Since the end of the Cold War researchers and officials concerned with humanitarian crises have called for development of early warning systems to assist in planning for preventive diplomacy, humanitarian assistance and peace-keeping. But no one has yet developed or tested models that can be used to analyze how communal or other conflicts escalate into crises and violence. This research develops a social scientific basis for doing so, using results of the investigator's Minorities at Risk Project. Three high-priority tasks for further research are being carried out in this project: 1) Updating the Minorities at Risk data set with new and more precise information on about 280 politically-active communal groups for 1990-1993, including about 50 newly active groups not included in the earlier study. 2) Using the data to reestimate models of the cause s of Communal Conflict in the 1980s and early 1990s, including new measures of state coercion and international support, and improved indicators of group mobilization. These models will be used to generate short-term forecasts or risk assessments about which groups are likely to become involved in escalating conflict. 3) Identifying the conditions under which communal conflicts lead to gross human rights violations. This will be done by (1) specifying a model of the causes of coercive regime responses to communal challenges, and (2) testing it using data on three cases of protracted conflict over a fifteen year period. ***