Analytical Techniques for Probabilistic Production Costing, Geographically Differentiated Marginal Cost, and Reliability Indices in Interconnected Power Systems

本提案的主要目标是开发一种现实可行的方法，用于互联电力系统的概率生产成本和边际成本计算。概率生产成本和可靠性评估是电力系统概率建模中两个相互关联的领域。多区域可靠性分析方法的一些最新进展将有助于提出生产成本问题的解决方案，同样，在提出的研究中解决生产成本计算中的一些问题将导致多区域可靠性分析技术能力的提高。预计最终产品将是生产成本、边际成本和可靠性指标的综合方法。已经确定了几个问题，其解决方案将为互联电力系统的概率生产成本建模提供重大进展，并导致可行的解决方案。这些问题是：寻找一个分解模拟程序，在考虑所有负载状态的情况下，通过单次分解找到每个单元相加后的指标。寻找确定生产成本和地理差异边际成本的有效技术。开发互连电力系统中相关区域负荷的更精确建模方法。开发一种将负荷相关传输模型纳入分解过程的方法。开发一种方法，在分解过程中纳入与时间相关的交换。研究直流流与网络流模型。寻找解决区域调度相关问题的方法。发展环路网络等效协助的概念。研究连续分布的使用。找到一种算法来并行化分解-模拟p过程

9412712 Singh The primary objective of this proposal is development of a realistic and viable methodology for probabilistic production cost and marginal cost calculations in interconnected power systems. Probabilistic production cost and reliability evaluation are two interrelated areas of probabilistic modeling of power systems. Some recent advancements in multi-area reliability analysis methods will contribute to the proposed solution of problems in production costing, and similarly the solution of some problems in production cost calculation in the proposed research will lead to enhancement of the capability of multi-area reliability analysis techniques. The end product is expected to be an integrated approach for production cost, marginal cost, and reliability indices. Several problems have been identifies whose solution will provide significant advancement of the probabilistic production cost modeling of interconnected power systems and to lead to viable solutions. These problems are: Find a decomposition-simulation procedure which, considering all loads states, can find indices after each unit addition by single decomposition. Find efficient techniques for determining production cost and geographically differentiated marginal cost. Develop methods for more accurate modeling of correlated area loads in an interconnected power system. Develop a methodology for incorporating load dependent transmission model in the decomposition process. Develop a methodology for incorporating time dependent interchanges in the decomposition process. Investigate DC Flow vs Network Flow model. Find solutions to problems associated with area-wide dispatch. Develop the concept of equivalent assistance for a looped network. Investigate the use of continuous distributions. Find an algorithm for parallelization of the decomposition- simulation p rocess ***