Modeling of Catastrophic Failures in Power and Communication Systems: Supporting Design, Preparation and Recovery

这项研究的目的是开发工具，以了解和提高在飓风等灾难性事件期间相互依赖的电力和通信系统的可靠性和性能。方法是使用异构的、相互依赖的基础设施、电力和电信系统的概率建模。将开发用于分析这些关键系统在灾难性事件中的可靠性、生存能力和性能的分析和模拟方法。这些工具将允许在自然灾害期间对这些系统的性能进行概率预测；有效分配关键资源以提高生存能力；开发故障定位技术；快速恢复和系统恢复。智力优势：该项目将通过开发现实相互依赖的电力和通信系统性能的分析和概率模型，显著提高技术水平。该技术还将通过开发大规模共因故障的分析和建模方法来推进，这些共因故障可能导致电力和通信系统中的多个链路和节点同时故障。更广泛的影响：本项目将提供可供政府机构和私营公用事业公司使用的工具，以尽量减少电力和通信损失对灾后立即应急反应和长期经济和社会恢复的影响。因此，该项目将有利于人民的生活、安全和经济福祉。研究结果还将被纳入两门跨学科课程。未被充分代表的学生群体将成为招生的目标。此外，将通过休斯顿社区学院（Houston Community College）的一个新项目招募一名本科生研究员，这是一所为少数族裔服务的机构。

The objective of this research is to develop tools for understanding and improving the reliability and performance of interdependent power and communication systems during catastrophic events such as hurricanes. The approach is to use probabilistic modeling of the heterogeneous, interdependent infrastructure, power and telecommunication systems. Analytical and simulation approaches for analyzing reliability, survivability, and performance of these critical systems during catastrophic events will be developed. These tools will allow probabilistic prediction of the performance of these systems during natural catastrophes; efficient allocation of critical resources for improving survivability; developing techniques for failure localization; and fast recovery and system restoration.Intellectual Merit:This project will significantly advance the state of the art by developing analytical and probabilistic models of the performance of realistic interdependent power and communications systems. The state of the art will also be advanced by developing analytical and modeling approaches for large-scale common-cause failures that may lead to the simultaneous failure of multiple links and nodes in power and communications systems.Broader Impact:This project will provide tools that can be used by government agencies and private utilities to minimize the impact of loss of power and communications on both immediate post-event emergency response and longer-term economic and social recovery. The project will thus benefit the life, security and economic well being of people. The results will also be integrated into two inter-disciplinary courses. Underrepresented student groups will be targeted for student recruitment. In addition, an undergraduate researcher will be recruited through a new program with Houston Community College, a minority-serving institution.