Evolutive Economic Dynamics

在现实世界的经济市场中，交易者的行为是基于他们对未来的预测。此外，预测器的选择是有目的的。也就是说，它是基于预测者过去的表现。相对于其他预测器表现较好的预测器逐渐被采用。但它们越来越受欢迎，降低了它们的预测能力。由此可见，预测因子的分布是由一个复杂的动力系统决定的，而这个动力系统的行为可能是混沌的。在这个多项目研究的第一部分，P.I.通过解析和数值模拟来研究这个动力系统。第二个项目考察投机市场中信息的均衡生产。这里的信息是指检测噪声信号的能力，均衡是指理性预期均衡。优质的信息转化为更高的利润，但获取这些信息的成本很高。P.I.将第一个项目关于适应动力学的方法应用于研究这个市场向均衡的演变。由此产生的模型预测了许多关于实际投机市场的风格化事实，比如股票市场。

SBR-9422670 William Brock In real-world economic markets, traders base their actions on their predictions about the future. The choice of predictor, furthermore, is purposeful. That is, it is based on how ell the predictor has performed in the past. Predictors that do well relative to other predictors are gradually adopted. But their increased popularity reduces their predictive power. It follows that the distribution of predictors is determined by a complex dynamical system that can be expected to behave chaotically. In the first part of this multi-project study, the P.I. studies this dynamical system both analytically and through numerical simulation. The second project examines the equilibrium production of information in speculative markets. Information here means the ability to detect noisy signals and equilibrium means a rational expectations equilibrium. Superior information translates into higher profits but this information is costly to acquire. The P.I. applies the methods of the first project on adaptive dynamics to the study of the evolution of this market to an equilibrium. The resulting model predicts many stylized facts about actual speculative markets, such as those for stocks.