Collaborative Research on Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Urban Homicide

9422849斯普拉格这项研究的总体目标是解释1960年至1994年期间圣路易斯凶杀案在时间和空间分布上的长期和短期变化。有两个假说框定了该项目的具体目标：扩散假说和独立世代假说，前者解释了凶杀案的变异性，后者基于将凶杀案事件直接相互联系的人际过程；后者解释了凶杀案在社会生态条件变化方面的差异。根据35年研究期间的警方记录，对个别凶杀事件进行了详细编码，以提供高度不同的凶杀事件分类。这些事件针对选定的时间间隔、不同的空间单位和不同的凶杀类型进行汇总。分析战略是根据受害者和罪犯的特征(种族、性别、年龄)和事件(枪支)，对杀人事件进行系统不同的时间和空间单位的重复横断面分析。毒品、帮派、受害者与罪犯的关系)。一个创新的特点是使用地理信息系统软件作为衡量凶杀事件和用于预测的其他措施的基本组成部分。这些分析是通过统计模型进行的，这些模型适用于凶杀案等高度扭曲的事件分布。完成的数据集将包括自1960年以来圣路易斯发生的5.000多起凶杀案，1950年至1990年人口普查年的数据，以及来自其他来源的数据，这些数据旨在衡量相关的行为过程。这项研究将对城市凶杀案的时空结构进行全面的描述，以促进对这一严重的国家问题的科学理解。这是对1960-1994年间圣路易斯凶杀案分布的研究。它检查了这种在时间和空间上的分布，以检验为解释谋杀的分布和发生而提出的两种不同的假设。扩散假说将凶杀案解释为直接将一起凶杀案与另一起凶杀案联系在一起的人际行为的结果。独立世代假说将凶杀案解释为社会经济条件变化的结果。为了检验假设，本研究将对圣路易斯凶杀案的特征进行详细编码，然后汇总不同时间段和空间单位的凶杀案及其特征。对这些综合凶杀案模式的分析将涉及对凶杀案最显著特征的重复横断面分析，如受害者和罪犯的特征(例如种族、性别、年龄)和凶杀事件(例如事件是否涉及枪支、毒品、帮派或某些受害者与罪犯的关系)。地理信息软件将在组织、显示、操作和分析凶杀案数据方面发挥重要作用。这项分析将基于5000多起凶杀案。将产生的数据集将包括5000起凶杀案的数据，以及来自人口普查的地理和时间组织的数据，以及与衡量与解释凶杀案有关的行为过程的其他来源。统计分析将为倾斜分布量身定做，例如那些表征凶杀案数据的分布。研究结果将提供对城市凶杀案结构的全面描述，这将促进对这一严重的全国性问题的科学理解。****

9422849 Sprague The overall objective of this research is to explain both long- and short-run changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of homicide in St. Louis over the period 1960-1994. Two hypotheses frame the specific aims of the project: the diffusion hypothesis, which accounts for variability in homicide on the basis of interpersonal processes that directly link homicide events to one another, and the independent-generation hypothesis, which accounts for variation in homicide in terms of changes in social-ecological conditions. Individual homicide events are coded in detail from police records for the 35-year period of study to provide a highly differentiated classification of homicide events. These events are aggregated for selected time intervals, for varying spatial units, and for varying homicide types. The analytic strategy is to conduct repeated cross-sectional analyses over systematically varied units of time and space for homicide events classified according to characteristics of victims and offenders (race, gender, age) and incidents (gun. drug, gang, victim-offender relationship). An innovative feature is the use of geographic information system software as a fundamental component of the measurement of both homicide events and other measures used in prediction.. The analyses are carried our with statistical models appropriate for the highly skewed distributions of events such as homicide. The completed data set will include more than 5.000 homicides that have occurred in St. Louis since 1960, data from the census years 1950-1990, and data from other sources designed to measure related behavioral processes. The research will produce a comprehensive account of the spatial and temporal structure of urban homicide that can advance scientific understanding of a serious national problem. %%% This is a study of the distribution of homicide in St. Louis over the period 1960-1994. It examines that distribution over both time and space to test two differing hypotheses advanced to explain the distribution and occurrence of murders. The diffusion hypothesis explains homicide as the result of interpersonal behaviors that directly link one homicide with another. The independent-generation hypothesis explains homicide as the result of changes in socioeconomic conditions. To investigate the hypotheses, this study will code the characteristics of St. Louis homicides in great detail and then aggregate homicide and their characteristics across various periods of time and units of space. The analysis of these aggregated homicide patterns will involve repeated cross-sectional analyses for the most salient characteristics of the homicides, characteristics such as traits of victims and offenders (e.g., race, gender, age) and of the homicide incident (e.g., whether the incident involves guns, drugs, gangs, or certain victim-offender relationships). Geographic information software will play an important role in organizing, displaying, manipulating, and analyzing the homicide data. The analysis will be based on more than 5,000 homicides. The data set to be produced will include the data on the 5,000 homicides plus geographically- and temporally-organized data from censuses and other sources relevant to measuring behavioral processes related to explaining homicide. The statistical analyses will be tailored for skewed distributions such as those characterizing homicide data. The research results will provide a comprehensive account of the structure or urban homicide that will advance scientific understanding of this serious national problem. ****