Collaborative Research on Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Urban Homicide

[9422849 . Sprague]本研究的总体目标是解释1960-1994年期间圣路易斯杀人案件时空分布的长期和短期变化。两个假设构成了该项目的具体目标：扩散假设，它在人际过程的基础上解释了杀人事件之间的直接联系，以及独立生成假设，它在社会生态条件的变化方面解释了杀人事件的变化。根据35年研究期间的警方记录，对个别杀人事件进行了详细编码，以便对杀人事件进行高度区分的分类。这些事件按选定的时间间隔、不同的空间单位和不同的杀人类型进行汇总。分析策略是根据受害者和罪犯的特征（种族、性别、年龄）和事件（枪支），在系统不同的时间和空间单位上对杀人事件进行重复的横断面分析。毒品、帮派、受害者与罪犯的关系)。一个创新的特点是使用地理信息系统软件作为测量杀人事件和预测中使用的其他措施的基本组成部分。这些分析是用统计模型进行的，该模型适用于诸如杀人等事件的高度倾斜分布。完整的数据集将包括自1960年以来发生在圣路易斯的5000多起凶杀案，1950-1990年人口普查年份的数据，以及旨在衡量相关行为过程的其他来源的数据。这项研究将对城市凶杀的时空结构做出全面的描述，从而促进对这一严重的全国性问题的科学理解。这是一项关于1960-1994年期间圣路易斯凶杀案分布的研究。它考察了时间和空间上的分布，以检验两种不同的假设，这些假设是用来解释谋杀的分布和发生的。扩散假说将杀人解释为人际行为的结果，这种行为将一起凶杀案与另一起凶杀案直接联系起来。独立世代假说将杀人解释为社会经济条件变化的结果。为了研究这些假设，本研究将对圣路易斯凶杀案的特征进行详细的编码，然后将不同时间和空间单位的凶杀案及其特征进行汇总。对这些汇总杀人案模式的分析将涉及对杀人案最显著特征的反复横断面分析，这些特征包括受害者和罪犯的特征（如种族、性别、年龄）和杀人事件（如事件是否涉及枪支、毒品、帮派或某些受害者-罪犯关系）。地理信息软件将在凶杀数据的组织、显示、处理和分析中发挥重要作用。分析将基于5000多起凶杀案。将要编制的数据集将包括5 000起凶杀案的数据，加上来自人口普查和其他来源的按地理和时间组织的数据，这些数据与衡量与解释凶杀案有关的行为过程有关。统计分析将针对歪斜分布进行调整，例如凶杀数据的特征分布。研究结果将提供对城市凶杀结构的全面描述，这将促进对这一严重国家问题的科学理解。＊＊＊＊

9422849 Sprague The overall objective of this research is to explain both long- and short-run changes in the temporal and spatial distribution of homicide in St. Louis over the period 1960-1994. Two hypotheses frame the specific aims of the project: the diffusion hypothesis, which accounts for variability in homicide on the basis of interpersonal processes that directly link homicide events to one another, and the independent-generation hypothesis, which accounts for variation in homicide in terms of changes in social-ecological conditions. Individual homicide events are coded in detail from police records for the 35-year period of study to provide a highly differentiated classification of homicide events. These events are aggregated for selected time intervals, for varying spatial units, and for varying homicide types. The analytic strategy is to conduct repeated cross-sectional analyses over systematically varied units of time and space for homicide events classified according to characteristics of victims and offenders (race, gender, age) and incidents (gun. drug, gang, victim-offender relationship). An innovative feature is the use of geographic information system software as a fundamental component of the measurement of both homicide events and other measures used in prediction.. The analyses are carried our with statistical models appropriate for the highly skewed distributions of events such as homicide. The completed data set will include more than 5.000 homicides that have occurred in St. Louis since 1960, data from the census years 1950-1990, and data from other sources designed to measure related behavioral processes. The research will produce a comprehensive account of the spatial and temporal structure of urban homicide that can advance scientific understanding of a serious national problem. %%% This is a study of the distribution of homicide in St. Louis over the period 1960-1994. It examines that distribution over both time and space to test two differing hypotheses advanced to explain the distribution and occurrence of murders. The diffusion hypothesis explains homicide as the result of interpersonal behaviors that directly link one homicide with another. The independent-generation hypothesis explains homicide as the result of changes in socioeconomic conditions. To investigate the hypotheses, this study will code the characteristics of St. Louis homicides in great detail and then aggregate homicide and their characteristics across various periods of time and units of space. The analysis of these aggregated homicide patterns will involve repeated cross-sectional analyses for the most salient characteristics of the homicides, characteristics such as traits of victims and offenders (e.g., race, gender, age) and of the homicide incident (e.g., whether the incident involves guns, drugs, gangs, or certain victim-offender relationships). Geographic information software will play an important role in organizing, displaying, manipulating, and analyzing the homicide data. The analysis will be based on more than 5,000 homicides. The data set to be produced will include the data on the 5,000 homicides plus geographically- and temporally-organized data from censuses and other sources relevant to measuring behavioral processes related to explaining homicide. The statistical analyses will be tailored for skewed distributions such as those characterizing homicide data. The research results will provide a comprehensive account of the structure or urban homicide that will advance scientific understanding of this serious national problem. ****