Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Ethnic Bases of Bargaining Power in Post-Soviet Russia

这项博士论文研究资助评估的问题是，一个特定联邦地区的种族构成是否会影响其与联邦领导人成功讨价还价的能力。更具体地说，俄罗斯联邦地区领导人动员公民的能力是否提高了他们相对于莫斯科的议价能力，这种议价能力的增加是否影响了他们成功与中央政府讨价还价的能力？政府间谈判是所有联邦制度的重要组成部分。在民族联邦制中尤其如此，各地区在许多方面存在利益分歧。政府间谈判影响宏观经济稳定的前景以及联邦地区的正式政治自治。因此，对区域议价能力基础的学术理解，特别是对民族基础的理解，对于理解和评估俄罗斯联邦以及更普遍的多民族联邦制国家的区域和平与稳定前景具有深远的影响。虽然已经进行了研究，以解决地区精英动员公民沿民族路线的能力，以及政府间谈判如何影响从经济资源再分配到地区政府政治地位的一切，但几乎没有工作试图研究动员公民的能力如何增加或减少地区领导人成功与中央政府讨价还价的能力。通过明确这一联系，本研究提高了我们对民族联盟中地区领导人所采用的战略和预期结果与我们期望在非基于民族分裂的联邦中看到的战略和结果的不同的理解。由于政策分析家和学者在处理多民族联邦制所面临的问题时所采用的许多理论框架都是以非民族联邦制的理论为基础的，因此了解如何修改这些框架以适应多民族联邦制是非常重要的。本文通过跨区域统计分析和案例研究相结合的方法来解决这一问题。使用特别适合处理俄罗斯案例中遇到的问题的统计方法（案例数量少、非随机抽样、缺少数据），表明议价能力的变化对向该地区的净转移支付的分配有重要影响。在展示了民族动员的总体重要性之后，作者利用鞑靼斯坦和下诺夫哥罗德的案例研究中获得的采访和档案数据，充实和阐述了地区精英能够动员公民的方式，以及这如何增强了这些精英与中央政府讨价还价的能力。

This doctoral dissertation research grant assess the question of whether or not the ethnic composition of a given federal region affects its ability to successfully bargain with federal leaders. More specifically, does the ability of regional leaders in the Russian Federation to mobilize citizens along ethnic lines enhance their relative bargaining power vis a vis Moscow, and does this increase in bargaining power affect their ability to successfully bargain with the central government? Intergovernmental bargaining is an important part of all federal systems. This is especially the case in ethnic federations where regions have divergent interests on may dimensions. Intergovernmental bargaining affects the prospects for macro-economic stability as well as the formal political autonomy of the federal regions. Consequently, scholarly understanding of the bases of regional bargaining power, especially the ethnic bases, has profound implications for understanding and assessing the prospects for regional peace and stability in the Russian Federation, as well as in multi-ethnic federal states more generally. While research has been done which addresses the ability of regional elites to mobilize citizens along ethnic lines and how intergovernmental bargaining affects everything from the redistribution of economic resources to the political status of regional governments, there has been almost no work which has attempted to examine how the ability to mobilize citizens increases or decreases the ability of regional leaders to successfully bargain with the central governments. By making clear this link, this research improves our understanding of how the strategies employed and outcomes anticipated by regional leaders in ethnic federations differ from the strategies and outcomes we would expect to see in federations which are not based upon ethnic divisions. Since many of the theoretical frameworks employed by both policy analysts and scholars to grapple with the problems faced by multi-ethnic federations are based upon theories of non-ethnic federations, an understanding of how these frameworks must be modified to fit multi-ethnic federations is of tremendous importance. This dissertation research addresses this question through a combination of cross-regional statistical analysis and case study research. Using statistical methods especially well-suited to deal with problems encountered in the Russian case (small number of cases, non-random sampling, missing data), it is shown that variations in bargaining power has an important effect on the distribution of net transfer payments to that region. Having demonstrated the general importance of ethnic mobilization, interview and archival data drawn from case studies in Tatarstan and Nizhinii Novgorod is used to flesh out and elaborate the ways in which regional elites are able to mobilize citizens and how this bolsters the bargaining power of these elites vis a vis the central government.