Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Ethnic Bases of Bargaining Power in Post-Soviet Russia

这个博士论文研究补助金评估是否一个给定的联邦地区的民族组成的问题，影响其成功地与联邦领导人讨价还价的能力。 更具体地说，俄罗斯联邦地区领导人动员沿着族裔公民的能力是否提高了他们相对维斯莫斯科的讨价还价能力，这种讨价还价能力的提高是否影响了他们成功地与中央政府讨价还价的能力？ 政府间谈判是所有联邦制度的重要组成部分。 在民族联邦中尤其如此，因为各地区在许多方面有不同的利益。 政府间谈判影响宏观经济稳定的前景以及联邦地区正式的政治自治。 因此，从学术上理解区域谈判能力的基础，特别是民族基础，对于理解和评估俄罗斯联邦以及更广泛的多民族联邦国家的区域和平与稳定前景具有深远的意义。 虽然已经进行了研究，解决了地方精英的能力，动员公民沿着种族线和政府间的谈判如何影响一切，从经济资源的重新分配到地方政府的政治地位，几乎没有工作，试图研究如何动员公民的能力增加或减少的能力，区域领导人成功地与中央政府讨价还价。 通过明确这一联系，本研究提高了我们的理解，在民族联合会的区域领导人所采用的战略和预期的结果不同的战略和结果，我们希望看到的联邦是不是基于民族分裂。 由于政策分析师和学者用来解决多民族联邦面临的问题的许多理论框架都是基于非民族联邦的理论，因此了解如何修改这些框架以适应多民族联邦是非常重要的。 本文通过跨区域统计分析和案例研究相结合的方法来解决这一问题。 使用统计方法，特别是非常适合于处理在俄罗斯的情况下遇到的问题（案件数量少，非随机抽样，数据缺失），它表明，讨价还价能力的变化有一个重要的影响，对该地区的净转移支付的分配。 在展示了民族动员的普遍重要性之后，从鞑靼斯坦和下诺夫哥罗德的案例研究中获得的访谈和档案数据被用来充实和阐述地区精英能够动员公民的方式，以及这如何增强这些精英维斯中央政府的讨价还价能力。

This doctoral dissertation research grant assess the question of whether or not the ethnic composition of a given federal region affects its ability to successfully bargain with federal leaders. More specifically, does the ability of regional leaders in the Russian Federation to mobilize citizens along ethnic lines enhance their relative bargaining power vis a vis Moscow, and does this increase in bargaining power affect their ability to successfully bargain with the central government? Intergovernmental bargaining is an important part of all federal systems. This is especially the case in ethnic federations where regions have divergent interests on may dimensions. Intergovernmental bargaining affects the prospects for macro-economic stability as well as the formal political autonomy of the federal regions. Consequently, scholarly understanding of the bases of regional bargaining power, especially the ethnic bases, has profound implications for understanding and assessing the prospects for regional peace and stability in the Russian Federation, as well as in multi-ethnic federal states more generally. While research has been done which addresses the ability of regional elites to mobilize citizens along ethnic lines and how intergovernmental bargaining affects everything from the redistribution of economic resources to the political status of regional governments, there has been almost no work which has attempted to examine how the ability to mobilize citizens increases or decreases the ability of regional leaders to successfully bargain with the central governments. By making clear this link, this research improves our understanding of how the strategies employed and outcomes anticipated by regional leaders in ethnic federations differ from the strategies and outcomes we would expect to see in federations which are not based upon ethnic divisions. Since many of the theoretical frameworks employed by both policy analysts and scholars to grapple with the problems faced by multi-ethnic federations are based upon theories of non-ethnic federations, an understanding of how these frameworks must be modified to fit multi-ethnic federations is of tremendous importance. This dissertation research addresses this question through a combination of cross-regional statistical analysis and case study research. Using statistical methods especially well-suited to deal with problems encountered in the Russian case (small number of cases, non-random sampling, missing data), it is shown that variations in bargaining power has an important effect on the distribution of net transfer payments to that region. Having demonstrated the general importance of ethnic mobilization, interview and archival data drawn from case studies in Tatarstan and Nizhinii Novgorod is used to flesh out and elaborate the ways in which regional elites are able to mobilize citizens and how this bolsters the bargaining power of these elites vis a vis the central government.